West Virginia Polls: Not a Game Changer
Polls indicate that Clinton has a significant lead over Obama and is poised for a spectacular victory in the state. Rasmussen's statewide poll from the week prior to the primary shows Obama trailing by a massive 29% in the popular vote. They report that 17% of the polled population is still undecided. American Research Group has Clinton ahead by over 40% in a poll conducted on May 7th and 8th. TSG Consulting/Orion strategies also have Clinton leading by over 40%.
The state's demographics are tailor-made for Clinton. West Virginia has a significant proportion of older population and blue-collar workers who have overwhelmingly supported Clinton throughout this contest. The state has the lowest percentage of population with a college degree in the country while the median household income for the state ranks amongst the lowest. Clinton has done very well in the neighboring states of Philadelphia and Ohio and is expected to win with a big margin in Kentucky's contest on May 20th.
But the contest is so far ahead with Obama in a clear lead both in the delegate count and the popular vote count that there are too few states and delegates to change the equation in Hillary's favor. Even with a 40% margin, Clinton will narrow the delegate-count gap by only 11-12 delegates.
Currently Obama has a lead of 168 pledged delegates according to CNN. The past week saw a wave of super-delegates joining the Obama camp. Now Obama is even with Clinton in the super-delegate count - when the race started, Clinton had over a 100 super-delegate lead.
In the remaining contests, Obama is expected to win in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. So very likely, any of Clinton's gains in West Virginia will be erased in the near future. Obama has in fact conceded to Clinton in this state but is fairly confident of the nomination and is marching forth to compete against McCain in the presidential elections.
According to Washington Post, there are reports of Clinton supporters pitching very strongly for her in West Virginia. And there are reports of supporters of the candidates openly having bitter exchanges. Though the polls will have no significant impact on the outcome of the Democratic nomination, they probably reflect the divisive nature of the Democratic electorate - Clinton backers disliking Obama and Obama supporters opposing Clinton.
Clinton is expected to continue making a case that she has won the big states and that Florida and Michigan delegates must be seated. Although her claims do not seem to be carrying much weight at this time considering how super-delegates have been gravitating towards Obama, she and her supporters will probably make a strong case to cast Clinton as Obama's running mate. Clinton's record in the primary and clout in the party may buy her this position even if it is not what Obama may be aiming for after a string of bitterly contested Democratic elections.
Published by Lami Eyer
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5 Comments
Post a CommentHmmm maybe if you step back and do your homework you eyes might open. When is the last time a Dem ran a republican race against another Dem? We have been through almost 6 months of primaries. We are close to a nominee the question is are you willing to back the nominee or do we have 4 more years of Bush?
I am an Independent and I can't support a Republican. I am hoping that by joining you and the Dems this year we can at least start moving in the right direction.
There are two simply awful choices, McCain (of the "100 years" in Iraq) and Clinton (of the dirtiest primary campaign in memory). Then there's Obama. He's the best of the worst. The only hope for those who want to live in something other than a failed military empire is that Obama gets elected and gets smart very quick. We have over 60 full military bases overseas and over 800 military installations. Why? Are the Russians coming? Are they hunting down "the evil doers?" No, they're the residue of a policy of deceit that hides these very facts from the public. What a sham! What a collection of lies. And that's just for starters. This election is critical - will we survive in any livable form as a society with the ruination of the environment - and that's not mentioned. But at least the fat cats will have a shot at maintaining their meaningless global empire of no bid contracts.
But Obama is winning in EVERY catagory (popular vote-even with FL and MI, delegate count, super delegates). Last I heard the winner is the most likely to win. Or might you be an idiot?
IT'S ABOUT ELECTABILITY !!!
MY FELLOW "BITTER", STUPID, WORKING CLASS PEOPLE :-)
If you think like Barack Obama, that WORKING CLASS PEOPLE are just a bunch of "BITTER"!, STUPID, PEASANTS, Cash COWS!, and CANNON FODDER. :-(
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think Barack Obama with little or no experience would be better than Hillary Clinton with 35 years experience.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience can fix an economy on the verge of collapse better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) led the greatest economic expansion, and prosperity in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience fighting for universal health care can get it for you better than Hillary Clinton. Who anticipated this current health care crisis back in 1993, and fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds to get universal health care for all the American people.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
HILLARY CLINTON CAN BEST WIN IN NOVEMBER:
IT'S ABOUT ELECTABILITY !!!
It's time for everyone to face the truth. Barack Obama has no real chance of winning the national election in November at this time. His crushing defeat in Pennsylvania, and loss in Indiana makes that fact crystal clear. His best, and only real chance of winning in November is on a ticket with Hillary Clinton as her VP.
Sen. Obama has zero chance of winning against the republican attack machine, and their unlimited money, and resources without Hillary Clinton. Zero chance.
It is absolutely essential that the democrats take back the Whitehouse in November. America, and the American people are in a very desperate condition now. And the whole World has been doing all that they can to help keep us propped up.
Hillary Clinton say's that the heat, and decisions in the Whitehouse are much tougher than the ones on the campaign trail. But I think Sen. Obama faces a test of whether he has what it takes to be