West Virginia Primary: Clinton on the Ticket?

Preliminary results from West Virginia's primary results have Clinton earning a resounding victory in the swing state. With over 60% of the votes counted, Clinton is ahead with 66% of the votes while Obama has only 27% of the votes. Associated Press estimates that Clinton has already claimed 16 delegates of the 28 in the state while Obama has gained 7 delegates. A decision on the remaining 5 is yet to come.

This result is no surprise; polls in West Virginia clearly indicated a 40% divide between the candidates. West Virginia's demographics are better suited for Clinton. The state has a huge blue-collar population and one of the lowest percentages with a college degree in the country. Besides, Clinton has performed very well in the neighboring states of Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Prior to this primary, Obama had 1882 delegates (pledged and superdelegates) while Clinton lagged behind by 160 delegates. In the past week, Obama overtook Clinton in the superdelegate count with several superdelegates breaking for him. With the gains from the primary, Clinton's lag diminishes only by a small number while Obama is still expected stay ahead in the popular vote count as well.

So the results do not change the political game very much. Obama is still very well poised to get the nomination. In fact, he is looking beyond the loss in the West Virginia primary and is more focused on attacking John McCain with an eye on the presidential race.

Though not unexpected, the results certainly boost Clinton's campaign, which is currently running on a multi-million-dollar debt. With her stellar performance, she is likely to get strong support going into Kentucky next. She is expected to win in Kentucky with a 20% margin, according to polls. However, Obama is expected to win in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. So Clinton's net gain from West Virginia and Kentucky may be wiped out by Obama's gain in these states.

While Obama's domination in the race is clear from the way the superdelegates are gravitating toward him, what is also emerging is the fact that Clinton is repeatedly doing well in the swing states. Apart from West Virginia, she has won with a sizeable margin in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Arkansas and Ohio. Florida, which has been stripped of its delegates for breaking party rules by conducting its primary too early, is another swing states where Clinton performed very well. Furthermore, her campaign believes that although she will trail behind Obama in the delegate count, she will close the gap in the popular vote at the end of the race.

Naturally, these are strong points in favor of her two main arguments -- the Democrats cannot win in November without winning the swing states and she has the backing of blue-collar voters, seniors, Catholics and Hispanics. It is likely that this will pressure Obama to pick her for his running mate in the presidential election. Besides, the divide that is now erupting because the race is dragging on will get plugged if the candidates unite under one ticket. If this happens, the Democratic party will be very positioned to take on the Republicans in November.