What Draft Strategy Should Quarterback Needy Teams Implement for the 2011 NFL Draft

There are a lot of NFL teams that have a need for a quarterback. The 2011 draft is an interesting and unusual case study because there is good depth, but a lot of questions regarding the top quarterback prospects. Below are my recommendations for the teams that many draft analysts identify as potentially drafting a quarterback early in the draft.

Carolina Panthers (1^st in round one, no second round pick)

In my opinion the Panthers have a big-time need at quarterback. By the time they are on the clock for the second time (first pick in third round) most, if not all, of the difference makers will be off the board. So if they cannot trade down they need to select one with their first round pick.

Now, who should it be? Looking at the history of the draft, when you make a mistake (see JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, David Carr, Tim Couch) it sets a franchise back for years. So for me, that means risk is a major factor when choosing which quarterback to select first overall. Of the top quarterbacks available in the draft, Blaine Gabbert of Missouri offers the best mix of upside potential and downside risk. So my recommendation for the Panthers is to draft Blaine Gabbert.

Buffalo Bills (3^rd pick in round one, 2^nd pick in round two)

The Bills need a franchise quarterback. However, with Ryan Fitzpatrick they have a player who can hold down the job and play adequately while they develop one. Therefore, I strongly recommend that the Bills do not draft a quarterback in round one. Instead they should use their second round pick.

Now, who should it be? My recommendation to the Bills is to draft Colin Kaepernick of Nevada in round two. He is a perfect fit for Chan Gailey. He is very athletic, very smart (37 Wonderlic score), and has an extremely strong arm. But he will need time to develop. In fact, if I were the Bills I would trade back up into the late first round to be sure I could get Kaepernick.

Cincinnati Bengals (4^th pick in round one, 3^rd pick in round two)

With Carson Palmer sticking to his guns regarding never playing another game for Cincinnati (not to mention his recent drop off in play), the Bengals need to draft a quarterback, especially since I am not enamored with any of the backups they have on their roster. So, should they roll the dice in round one, or wait until the second round? My recommendation is that they grab a quarterback in round one. Why? Because drafting a quarterback there allows GM Mike Brown to come off his high horse and trade Carson Palmer for a third round pick (probably in 2012). The impetus for trading Palmer is drafting a "franchise" quarterback, not the stand taken by Palmer. So it's either a quarterback in round two, and nothing for Carson Palmer; or a first round quarterback and an extra valuable draft pick.

Now, who should it be? This is the perfect spot for Cam Newton of Auburn. He has the star power and upside that allows the scenario I mentioned earlier to happen. The Bengals can say they are getting rid of Palmer (turning the page) so that Newton has a clear path to their starting job and no established veteran looming while he deals with the inevitable growing pains of becoming a starting NFL signal caller.

Arizona Cardinals (5^th pick in round one, 6^th pick in round two)

Certainly the Cardinals do not currently have a quarterback on its roster who currently, could lead them to the playoffs (well, since they are in the NFC West, at least deep into the playoffs). That isn't to say that John Skelton couldn't eventually be that guy. I think he has the skills and make-up to develop into that guy, but he isn't there yet. So this is the team that should be on the receiving end of the eventual trade of Carson Palmer or Donovan McNabb (or sign McNabb if he is released). So my recommendation is that Arizona not select a quarterback early in the draft and instead grab a quarterback late who they feel can push/challenge Skelton down the line.

Now, who should it be? There are a number of possibilities depending upon when they want to pull the trigger. Some names include: Pat Devlin (Delaware), Greg McElroy (Alabama), Jeff Van Camp (Florida Atlantic), Josh Porter (Cal U-Penn), and T.J. Yates (North Carolina) who showed impressive accuracy at his Pro Day.

Cleveland Browns (6^th pick in round one, 5^th pick in round two)

Publically, they are strongly behind Colt McCoy. Is it real? Yes and no. There is no quarterback in this draft who is a sure thing to develop into a starter who will be leaps and bounds better than McCoy. So, based on this draft the answer is yes. If there was a "franchise" quarterback available when they drafted, would the answer still be yes? I think not. So my recommendation is unless they see good value at a specific spot in the draft, don't go quarterback.

San Francisco 49ers (7^th pick in round one, 13^th pick in round two)

Here is the perfect example of how drafting the wrong guy at #1 overall can hinder a franchise for years. And they got duped twice. The second time they let a much better NFL quarterback, Shaun Hill, go to re-commit to Smith. It sounds like they may be going for round three, resigning him as a free agent. But, they need a new quarterback. However, they are in a bad spot because by the time they are on the clock in round two, I believe the top 7 quarterbacks will be gone. So, what to do? Their best bet is to trade up or down. If the Panthers like one of the quarterbacks in the second batch, they could start slowly moving down, accumulating picks along the way. Trading with the 49ers could be a start and the 49ers could grab Gabbert. If not, San Francisco could move down eyeing one of the quarterbacks in the second batch. However, given that I cannot predict trades, I would pass on a quarterback in round one and hope one falls to me in round two.

Now, who should it be? Based on my projections, the top seven will all be off the board by the 13^th pick in round two. So the quarterback who could be available for them in round two or round three is the underrated Ricky Stanzi (Iowa). I'm not sure they would pull the trigger on him, but I would.

Tennessee Titans (8^th pick in round one, 7^th pick in round two)

The Titans have a big need at quarterback. Fortunately for them this is a deep quarterback draft. The guy who I believe would be a good fit for them would be a reach in round one. So I would draft a quarterback in round two, with an eye on moving into the late first round if needed to get my guy.

Now, who should it be? My strong recommendation for the Titans is to draft Jake Locker (Washington) in round two (or move up to the bottom of round one if needed). After the apparent lack of dedication and leadership from Vince Young, Locker would be a breath of fresh air. He is a hard worker and strong leader. All the intangibles (and athleticism) are there.

Washington Redskins (10^th pick in round one, 9^th pick in round 2)

I scratch my head over the mess the Redskins made with Donavan McNabb. He was good enough to get the Eagles far in the playoffs, and would have been fine for the Redskins. Oh well. Now Washington has to move on. While I would give some thought to drafting a quarterback in round one, I feel it may be a bit too high for the ones available with the skills Shanahan likes at #10. So if I were Washington, I would look to maneuver in the draft, or grab when in round two.

Now, who should it be? The best fits for the Redskins would be Locker, Kaepernick, Christian Ponder (Florida State) or Andy Dalton (TCU). Of the four, the one I have the lowest draft grade on is Dalton. However, he is currently a hot prospect according to the TV talking heads. So the Redskins could get lucky and have Locker or Ponder fall into their laps. Based on my grades, Dalton would be the last of the top seven quarterbacks available and the player that the Redskins draft. In any case, whichever of the top seven are on the board (except Mallett, he doesn't fit the mold of a Shanahan QB), I would recommend the Redskins grab him.

Minnesota Vikings (12^th pick min round one, 11^th pick min round two)

Bye, bye Mr. Selfish Guy .... The Vikings are better off without Brett Favre. However, they need a quarterback. And round one is definitely where they need to address the position. I believe they will have their choice of anyone other than Gabbert and Newton.

Now, who should it be? In my opinion Ryan Mallett (Arkansas) has the biggest upside of any quarterback in the draft. A fairly immobile quarterback, (who does have good feet in the pocket) with a rifle of an arm and who is a bit of a head case is what they had the last two years; and that is Mallett's M.O. There was a report by the highly credible SI.com's Jim Trotter that at least one team loves Mallett in round one. While speculation has been centered on Jacksonville, I have a hunch that it's the Vikings. And if it isn't; it should be.

Jacksonville Jaguars (16^th pick round one, 17^th pick round two)

I don't believe that the Jaguars' need at quarterback is at the level of the other teams on this list. However, if one of the top seven falls to them in round two (highly unlikely) I would strongly consider pulling the trigger. Personally, I would target my top guy in the next batch starting in round three.

Now, who should it be? The quarterback that makes sense for the Jaguars is Ricky Stanzi (Iowa). If they love him they may need to draft him in the second round to get him ahead of the 49ers. If they don't love him, or feel the 49ers will pass on him, they could wait until round three. While I may be wrong, I don't believe the 49ers will draft him, so I would wait until round three, and to be safe look to move up ahead of San Francisco to ensure I get him.

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