What Effect Will the NFL Lockout Have on Fantasy Football?

With much speculation on what effect the NFL lockout will have on fantasy football leagues in 2011, here are my thoughts on the matter:

Do not draft rookies in your fantasy football draft. Due to the NFL lockout, rookies have had less time than ever to learn their team's offensive schemes and terminology. With only one mini-camp after the 2011 NFL Draft and no OTAs (organized team activities) by the teams until training camp opened hurriedly after the collective bargaining agreement was ratified, rookies are more behind the learning curve than ever before.

Most rookies are not draftable in Fantasy Football leagues under normal circumstances. Witness the meager stats compiled by the #9 pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, C.J. Spiller of Buffalo, for instance. Ryan Mathews of San Diego was another rookie who didn't do much to justify a pick in 2010 fantasy drafts, either.

In 2011, nearly all the rookies will be still trying to find their way out of the lockerrrom at midseason in my opinion, let alone picking up their team's offense well enough to see the ball much.

The one exception to the 2011 rookie rule would be Mark Ingram of New Orleans. Ingram was well prepped for the NFL by Nick Saban, including blitz pickup which is what keeps most young running backs off the field. You see, if the defense knows when a certain back is in the game it's going to be a run because he can't pick up the blitz, the back has a hard time finding running lanes. Defenses blitz more with rookie running backs in the game.

Ingram, the son of a former NFL receiver by the same name also has that going for him, thus he is not a typical rook,

Also beware of most veteran players who are switching teams this season. While Kevin Kolb of Arizona may turn out to be a fine acquisition for the Cardinals, Kolb will be adjusting to a very different offense than the one he spent his entire career running in Philly. It helps that Kolb has Larry Fitzgerald to throw to, but I would not recommend using higher than a middle round choice on Kolb in fantasy drafts at best.

Kolb would be best suited to be a backup in fantasy football for at least the first half of the season unless he acclimates extremely well.

One of the biggest effects the lockout will have is with free agents not being able to sign until recently, there has been a flurry of players changing teams since late July. Fantasy owners will need to do more homework to know who went where.

To sum up, my fantasy football draft philosophy for 2011 Fantasy Football drafts is after the obvious picks in rounds 1-3 or 4 will be to try to uncover breakout players who have seen limited action in the past but showed promise and return to the same team.

Such a player is Felix Jones of Dallas who has played well when healthy but had limited touches behind Marion Barber. With Barber having been a salary cap casualty and now in Chicago, Jones should be the man in Big D in 2011.

Dez Bryant is another talented Cowboy who should flourish in what should be a high scoring offense.

In short, my #1 rule for fantasy football in 2011 is to avoid rookies and stick with mostly players returning to the same team they played for last season.