What to Expect from President Obama's State of the Union Speech

There comes a defining moment in every presidency when the political game of limbo calls for a raising or lowering of the bar. Wednesday night, President Obama will have to use some of the skills he learned on the basketball court to give the defining speech of his young administration. It may be one of many, but tonight"s State of the Union address will have to be the speech of his life.

America, and its political winds are at a crossroads just 15 short months after a majority of this country, Democrats, Independents, and yes, Republicans alike, elected the junior senator from Illinois on the promise of change we could believe in. The clock appears to be running out.

Fresh on the heels of a stinging senate defeat in Massachusetts and subsequent takeover of Ted Kennedy's seat in what should have been a liberal stronghold, Obama's every gesture, his every sigh will be analyzed by pundits from FOX to CNN to Telemundo. Add to that a still shaky economy, a high nationwide unemployment rate, and a health care bill that appears to be on life support, tonight's 9 p.m. Eastern time State of the Union address has all the makings of Grand Guignol.

There has been much talk in the press about leaked details from the forthcoming speech including a proposal that seeks a three-year budget freeze for domestic programs and expanding tax credits that will reportedly benefit the middle class.

However, some economists, including Nobel-Prize winning expert Paul Krugman, say that these are ineffective gimmicks that won't really address the actual problem of future deficit reduction, at least not in a meaningful way. Much will probably be made about a scaling back of the legislation that Congress is currently considering and an offer for a more piecemeal approach to reform will be on the table.

Viewers can likely expect to hear a pivot to the center as Obama plays to the Independents who helped send him to Pennsylvania Avenue.

As is the case with most initiatives, some will say that the President's policies don't go far enough to promote the change platform that got him elected. The liberal wing will undoubtedly want him to focus on health reform with a public option, climate control, and a rally against banks and corporations "too big to fail."

Gay rights groups will want to hear about a repeal of the Don't Ask Don't Tell policy, and a shift in position on the gay marriage debate.

Conservatives will salivate at the mere mention of national security, lower taxation, and a freeze on domestic spending.

In the end, Obama's inclination to be conciliatory will make him hard to target tomorrow night. He will effortlessly highlight his accomplishments this past year and tout the benefits in the year to come. However, if the President doesn't play hardball with his skeptics and detractors one-on-one, his fan base just may start thinking that what they are really watching is how Washington changed what we believed in.

Sources:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/20/us/politics/20election.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anvDy525cK74

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=usunemployment&met=unemployment_rate&tdim=true&dl=en&hl=en&q=us+unemployment+rate

http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/01/26/poll.health.care/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/26/AR2010012604154.html?hpid=topnews

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1956642,00.html

http://mediamatters.org/research/201001260046

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_Big_to_Fail

http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/id.5363/pub_detail.asp