What to Expect in Presidential Debate #3

In tonight's final Presidential debate, the third in the series, the venue will be different, Hempstead N.Y., after stops in Oxford, MS and Nashville, TN, but the format will be the same as Presidential debate #1. Instead of Jim Lehrer, this time the moderator will be Bob Schieffer of CBS News.

Unlike the previous two Presidential debates, the candidates will be seated at the same table, only a couple of feet apart, which could prove to be awkward when either John McCain or Barack Obama attacks the other candidate. Bob Schieffer reportedly will try to get the candidates to address each other directly more than in the first two debates. Schieffer is also reported to be under pressure from both camps to do various things. It reminds me of the scene in Caddyshack in which Rodney Dangerfield's character Al Czervik slips money to the referee of a golf match to "keep it fair".

With the moderator on record as wanting to throw the candidates a "curveball", what does that mean to we, the viewers? What will be John McCain and barack Obama's "talking points" in the 3rd and final Presidential debate?

John McCain will get the first question. In my opinion, McCain will open his remarks with noting that Nancy Reagan, widow of Ronald Reagan, has been hospitalized. In order for John McCain to have any chance of winning the election, he must receive the support of the GOP base, who idolize "The Gipper". McCain will request that our thoughts and prayers be with Mrs. Reagan and try reach out to hardcore Reagan admirers by drawing parallels between himself and Reagan..In contrast, don't look for McCain to say much, if anything about Dick Cheney's heart problems.

Since tonight's format deals with the economy and domestic issues, McCain will then make a sort of Clintonesque "I feel your pain" statement to the middle class and middle America with more bad news on the economy coming today and the latest polls showing McCain further behind. John McCain will use his trademark phrase "my friends" at least 20 times during the debate tonight. He will try to appear steady and even-tempered to counter Barack Obama's charge that McCain is "erratic" in some of his policies

For his part, Barack Obama will stay calm, especially when pictured watching as John McCain speaks. With the two men vying to become the nations' 44th President being seated so close together, it will be almost impossible for them to avoid being in the picture while the other speaks. Neither candidate will be allowed to roam the stage like Phil Donahue on his old talk show according to the debate rules. It will be interesting to see if the two men stay within the rules that they had a part in making, unlike the 2nd Presdiential deabte moderated by Tom Brokaw.

At some point in the debate, look for the name of William "Bill" Ayers to be brought up by either McCain or Bob Schieffer. I expect John McCain to wait for Schieffer to broach the subject, then pounce to try to put Obama on the defensive concerning his relationship with the former 60's radical, such as it were. In one interview, when asked about Ayers, McCain said that Barack Obama nearly guaranteed the subject would be discussed with recent comments made by Obama.

Sarah Palin has made several comments on the campaign trail about "Barack Obama palling around with terrorists" recently. It's William Ayers she was referring to, of course. The Chairman of the Republican Party in Virginia, a "battleground state" leaning toward Obama in recent polls, (10 points in a poll released by CNN today), compared Barack Obama to Osama bin Laden saying that "both had friends who bombed the Pentagon and that's scary".

In short, John Mccain will try to cast doubt on Barack Obama's experience and judgment, saying that he, McCain, is the true candidate of "change". McCain will use the term "maverick" to describe himself and Sarah Palin. Look for John McCain to use the approach that "what Obama is promising today is the opposite of what he has done" in his short polical career on taxes and other issues concerning Americans.

Look for Barack Obama to play it safe, sitting on his lead in the polls, to try and not offend independent voters, many of whom may still be undecided. Obama should emphasize that he, Obama, was 8 years old when Ayers committed his crimes and that Americans are much more concerned with issues like healthcare, housing foreclosures and jobs than events decades ago committed by a now college professor.

Obama will make every effort to appear "Presidential", talk about middle class cuts a lot, say that John McCain will give tax relief to large corporations and the top 1-5% of the populace to the detriment of the middle class. Obama will conclude by saying that "change" is the overriding factor in this election and that John McCain's election would be the equivalent of a third Bush term.

Don't look for a lot of new ground to be broken by either candidate, this third and final Presidential debate will be "deja vu all over again" to quote Yogi Berra. Each man will stress their talking points, try to avoid gaffes. John McCain, if he chooses to get more negative and "go after" Barack Obama more roughly as many of his supporters are urging, does so at the risk of offending undecideds, who McCain must have in his column to win.

It would be interesting if Las Vegas oddsmakers took bets on which happens more in this debate, Barack Obama using the word "change" or John McCain with his "my friends" phrase punctuating seemingly every sentence. In the 2nd Presdiential debate, my 12 year old son counted 20 "my friends" before he had to go to bed. With the stakes in this debate being higher than ever with this being the final debate, my over and under on "my friends" references is 20. Any takers?