What If MLB Played by the Rules of the NFL?

We always hear that one of the things that makes the National Football League so great is that every team has a better shot at the playoffs than in Major League Baseball, where it's alleged that (pick your favorite percentage) so many teams have no shot at the post-season.

But is this really true? Or is it simply a mirage created by the extra teams that make the playoffs in football combined with a shorter schedule and chances for a team to get hot at the right time?

Since 2002, 27 different NFL teams have made the playoffs, 13 in the AFC and 14 in the NFC. Meanwhile in MLB, only 17 different teams have made the playoffs, with 10 in the NL and seven in the AL.

But, what if we take records after 16 games and apply the NFL's playoff format? Which league would show more balance? For this study, we will examine the results after 16 games in the current MLB season, but use the five-year period from 2002-2006 for our experiment, since both leagues have completed their respective seasons, thereby making it a more valid comparison.

Because of weather-related postponements, the Seattle Mariners have played fewer games than any team in baseball. The Mariners just passed the 16-game mark, so we can see what baseball's playoff teams would be if MLB played a 16-game schedule. In the NL, the Braves, Astros and Dodgers would win their respective divisions and the Mets, Brewers and Diamondback would be the wild cards. In the AL, the Red Sox, Twins and A's would be the division winners and the Indians, Tigers and White Sox would round out the playoff field.

Thanks to Retrosheet (perhaps the best online site in the world), we can go back and construct 16-game records for previous baseball seasons. We can learn two things from studying this from an historical perspective: 1) if baseball had football's schedule length and playoff format, which league would have more competitive balance and 2) how good are 16-game records at predicting which teams will make the playoffs?

Using the NFL playoff format after 16 games in the regular MLB season, 27 different teams made the playoffs, the same number as made it in the NFL. In the National League, 14 different teams made the playoffs, with only the Brewers and Padres not qualifying after the 16-game mark. And the Brewers would make it in 2007. In the American League, only the Devil Rays failed to qualify for the playoffs in the past five seasons at the 16-game mark.

Thanks to a 16-game schedule, even clubs that we think of as perennial doormats with baseball's more challenging 162-game season made the playoffs. The Royals made it in 2003, when they went 13-3 and won the AL Central. The Pirates made the playoffs in 2002 when they went 11-5 and won the NL Central.

Now, let's see the annual breakdown for the five-year period of 2002-2006 and see how the teams that made the playoffs after a 16-game season compared to the ones that made the post-season after 162 games. This way we can see if the 16-game season has any predictive value for determining the actual playoff teams. We'll go back to four playoff teams per league for this exercise.

In 2006, the 16-game MLB season (now on called the test) would have the Mets, Astros, and Giants as the division winners and the Reds as the wild card in the NL. In the AL, the division winners would have been the Red Sox, White Sox and Angels as division winners with the Tigers as the wild card. In reality only two of those teams made the playoffs - the Mets and the Tigers..

In 2005, the test would have the Dodgers, Cardinals, Marlins and Nationals in the NL playoffs with the Red Sox, White Sox, Angels and Twins in the AL. In reality, four of those teams made the playoffs - the Cardinals, Red Sox, White Sox and Angels.

In 2004, the test had the Dodgers, Marlins, Cubs and Reds in the NL playoffs and the Twins, A's, Orioles and Red Sox in the AL. In reality, three of those teams made the playoffs - the Red Sox, Twins and Dodgers.

In 2003, the test had the Giants, Cubs, Expos and Phillies in the NL and the Mariners, Royals, Yankees and Red Sox in the AL. In reality four of those teams made the playoffs - the Giants, Cubs, Yankees and Red Sox.

In 2002, the test had the Mets, Pirates, Giants and Diamondbacks in the NL and the Red Sox, Indians, Mariners and Twins in the AL. In reality three of those teams made the playoffs - the Giants, Diamondbacks and Twins.

In the previous five seasons, 16 of the 40 actual playoff teams would have made the post-season after 16 games. Not something to take to Vegas.

So, the next time someone tells you about the competitive balance enjoyed by the NFL, you can tell them it is simply a product of the 16-game season and two extra teams making the playoffs. It is not something inherently better about football. And just because a team is off to a good start after 16 games, it's way too early to start printing playoff tickets. In other words, settle down Astros fans.