What Are the Odds of Jesus' 700 Plus Prophecies Fulfillment?
Incredible Odds, Incredible Fulfillments, Incredible God
For the sake of being able to wrap your mind around the odds, let's just take eight prophecies. The actual mathematical probability that Jesus Christ could have fulfilled even eight prophecies would still be a mind boggling 1 in 1017 of a chance! Put another way, it's 10 to the 157th power. That's 1 in 100, 000, 000, 000, 000, and 000. This page would fill up with "0000" if I wrote out what the odds would look (and the poor publisher would think, "uh oh, we've got a problem"). That number, no one can fathom. That is the same likelihood of Jesus Christ fulfilling seven hundred prophecies.
Now, what are the odds that only 48 of the more than 700 [that we know of] prophecies of Jesus were fulfilled? Dr Peter Stoner [Science Speaks, 1958] estimated the odds against just 48 of the 300 or so Old Testament prophecies about the Messiah being fulfilled in one person. He calculated the odds at 1 in 10 to the power 157. [1]
This illustrates why it is absolutely impossible for anyone to have fulfilled the Messianic prophecies solely by chance. Emile Borel is a leading authority on the probability theory, and he states in his book Probabilities and Life, once we go past one chance in 10 to the 50th power, the probabilities are so small it's impossible to think they will ever occur. [2] Mathematicians generally agree that, statistically, any odds beyond 1 in 1050 have a zero probability of ever happening by random chance. This is Borel's law in action which was derived by mathematician Emil Borel. [3] The necessary conclusion then, would be that these prophecies were not mere coincidences; not to the exponential power they weren't. When the Roman soldiers cast lots for Jesus' garment, another prophecy was fulfilled as, "They divide my garments among them and cast lots for my clothing." fulfilled in Psalm 22:18. By the way, dividing of garments between attending Roman soldiers was completely normal at crucifixions, but casting lots was not. This was illegal. And for the Roman soldier while on duty, punishable by death! John 19:23, 24 might explain why this exception was made. This one seamless garment was of much better quality than normal, so instead of tearing to share, they cast lots for it. Now, what are the exact odds against this exception? This seems to have been a rare event since the soldiers had to discuss how to deal with it. Surely it would be conservative to assign a probability of one in twenty-five. This brings the chances down, relatively speaking, to one in 187,500 of being just a random chance happening. [1]
Now the subject on the odds for Biblical prophecies coming true is equally astounding, if not unfathomable. There are over 100 prophecies alone about Babylon that have all been fulfilled and some yet remaining in Revelation. In the book of Isaiah, he foresaw the fall of Babylon which would not even emerge as the world's most dominant power for another hundred years. (Isa. 21:1-10). And the Succession of world empires was told, in advance, in Daniel 2 and 7. And Tyre's fall was foretold, precisely as it happened in Ezekiel 26.
It should be noted that these men actually wrote down God's foreknowledge. Whether it was by the Spirit or they were in the Spirit, I do not know. But this I know. God's Word is the authority behind these prophecies; decidedly not the prophets. The way in which God addresses these prophets is "Thus says the Lord", in fact over 3,808 times! This infers it is God's Word's of prophetic events, and not the words of men. The fulfillment of these prophecies by Jesus Christ is quantifiable, tangible, and quite obvious. I am a Charter Member of my college's Historian's fraternity and no Historian that I know of has written significantly different biographies of Jesus than what is described in the Bible.
Here's another example. Jesus was known by many as being from Nazareth. Ironically (or not), Nazarenes' providential arrangements required the parents to live in Nazareth, which was the fulfilling of prophecies in which the Messiah is described as a "shoot" or "sprout" of Jesse. And by specific application, Jesus fulfilled the perfection of what a Nazarene should be. They were required to be set apart for service to God or essentially a self-sacrifice of them self to His service, they themselves brought the offerings to God (normally Levites' duties) and a monitor or witness of the law (Num 6:2-17, Lev 21:10-12, Ex 29:2). There are far too many of these prophecies to be covered in one book but here are some of those which Jesus fulfilled in two ways. Foretold in the Old Testament, and fulfilled in the New Testament.
Born of a virgin Isa 7:14 Matt 1:23
Born in Bethlehem Micah 5:2 Matt 2:1
Lived in Nazareth * Isa 11:1 Matt 2:21-23
Rejected by his own Isa 6:10, 53:1-3 John 1:11
Enters Jerusalem triumphantly Zech 9:9 John 12:12-19
Betrayed by a friend Zech 11:12-13 Matt 26:14
Died with criminals Isa. 53:9 Matt 27:38
Buried with the rich Isa 53:9-12 Matt27:57-60
Lots cast for his clothes Psl 22:18 Luke 23:24
Offered vinegar to drink Ps 69:21 Matt 27:34
Dying words are given Ps 22:1, 31:5 Mt. 27:46, Lk. 23:46
No bone is broken Ps 34:20 John 19:36
His side to be pierced Ps 22:16, Zech 12:10 John 19:34
Thousands upon thousands of witnesses knew Jesus by sight and knew He was the Messiah and the son of David, by lineage (Luke 1:1-..., 18:35-43). Even the Samaritan Women at the well knew that a Messiah was to come. Difficult as it is to believe, this was common knowledge in Jerusalem especially among the Chief Priests, Scribes, Pharisees and Sadducees. Many of them acknowledged Him as a Son of David...some knew Jesus told the truth and was from God (Luke 20:20-26, 19:28-40, 20:20-26). Incidentally, this generation was the only one in which they could actually blaspheme the Holy Spirit, since they knew better. Everyone should have. In fact in the whole of Judea and Samaria, there were thousands of witnesses (Luke 24:15-24, Act 1:3-4, 2:31-32, 9:3, 17, I Cor 15:4-8, II Pet 1:16-21, Jhn 3:2, 15:27, I Jhn 1:1-3, 14) and more than 500 people that say Him after His crucifixion (I Cor. 15:4-8, 9:1). These people must have talked incessantly about this for years and generations, which is the reason that there were no legitimate stories about it being a hoax, save the false witnesses by the Temple Jews. The Old Testament confirms Christ's coming thousands of years before (Gen. 18:18, 28:14, Duet 18:15-19, Pslm 122:18, 132:11, 11:1-7, 2:7, Ish 53:7-8, 49:6-9, 7:14, Acts 3:22-25, 7:32, Heb 5:5-6) and describes a crucifixion long before such an execution even existed (Psl 22, Ish 53, 50:6, 25-29, 49, 52:13-15, 62). So based solely on quantifiable, mathematical principles, the fulfillment of the hundreds of prophecies by Jesus, and other events, were no mere random chance accidents, or just got lucky. No. He was always at the right places at the right time as the scripture said. Of course, no finite human being could ever possibly pull off such a thing as the fulfillments of all of the Bible's prophecies about Jesus! This takes a Someone Who can, not only predict thousands of years before, but Who Himself can cause it to happen. The necessary conclusion must be that, it was intentionally preordained and intentionally fulfilled.
1. Science Speaks, by Peter W. Stoner. Copyright © 1958, 1963, 1968 by the Moody Bible Institute of Chicago. (P. 333).
2. Borel, Emil (1962), Probability and Life, Dover, translated from the original, Les Probabilite et la Vie
3. http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/abioprob/borelfaq.html
* For Nazarenes', providential arrangements required parents to live in Nazareth, which was the fulfilling of prophecies in which the Messiah is described as a "shoot" or "sprout" of Jesse. By application, Jesus fulfilled the perfection of what a Nazarene should be. They were required to be set apart for service to God or essentially a self-sacrifice of them self to His service, they themselves brought the offerings to God (normally Levites duties) and a monitor or witness of the law (Num 6:2-17, Lev 21:10-12, Ex 29:2)
Excerpt from Chapter Five of "Blind Chance or Intelligent Design?, Empirical Methodologies and the Bible", by Jack Wellman. Copyright, 2009.
The Contributor has a direct relationship to the brand or product described in this content.
Published by Jack Wellman
I'm a pastor at Mulvane Brethren Church (KS) & author who gives free training for Effective Evangelism at various churches in the states and have published 3 books on Amazon: "Teaching Children The Gospel",... View profile
- Jesus Christ is GodJesus both claimed to be God and was said to be God by those who followed Him.
- Colorado Springs Deemed "Too Conservative" by Jesus ChristAlthough he doesn't mind visiting from time to time, Jesus Christ dislikes the ultra-conservatism of Colorado Springs.
- Former Pittsburgh Pirates' Photographer, Once Convicted of Drug Dealing, Now Speak...Although Dale Shiffman may have never lived to see his dream of playing major league baseball come true, he actually got more than he dreamed of-too much more--as a photographer with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Today, the...
- The Caiaphases: Comparing Jesus Christ Superstar 1970 and 2000One of the most powerful scenes in 1970's Jesus Christ Superstar is the song "This Jesus Must Die." It's just one example of what makes the original version of the movie so much better than that made in 2000.
How to Have a Relationship with Jesus ChristSo many people don't know where to start having a relationship with Jesus Christ. All we have to do is want it.
- Jesus Christ: The True Messiah
- Jesus Christ: Superstar?
- The Top Ten New Year's Resolutions for a Follower of Jesus Christ
- The State of Texas Seized the Children of the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Chris...
- Jesus Christ: An Historical Fact
- Indian Feeling for Spiritual Living - "We Are Bireligious when We Believe in Jesus...
- Jesus Christ Himself Declares, 'I Am Not God.'





27 Comments
Post a CommentThanks for the info.
Jack, you might want to check out the online version of Dr. Stoner's book. Dr. Stoner's grandson added a note to the end of the pertinent text that, essentially, said "My grandfather's mathematics were wrong." I must also again argue that the correct application of basic probability mathematics (as presented in my recent post) yields a far, far greater probability that Jesus of Nazareth WAS NOT the fulfillment of only 48 prophecies, much less 600. If you think that this would be a good topic for an online debate, drop me a line and we'll see what we can come up with. As always, I'm not attacking your faith but only what I feel to be an invalid supporting argument.
I agree that the odds against JC fulfilling all of those OT prophecies are virtually prohibitive. Because of that, I should look for an explanation that explains the phenomenon. I choose not to cite supernatural causes, because they are not testable. I am left with the idea that the NT was written to persuade a mostly Jewish and highly credulous audience that JC was indeed the messiah. Christians today have no problem with using dishonesty in winning souls for Jesus, so I have no problem believing that they might have done so 2000 years ago. My explanation makes more sense than yours.
BTW, the "veracity of the Bible" insofar as truth claims are concerned, is very much in question, and always has been.
You have claimed that the New Testament was written to make it "appear" as thou the prophecies were fullfilled and that the Old Testament & the "alledged" fullfillment was outside of the bounds of probability to have been a coincidence. The O.T. was written hundreds of years before Christ was even born? Can you read these articles & tell me what makes you think its outside of the bounds of coincidence?
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2419424/biblical_manuscripts_and_the_inerrancy.html?cat=37 The Old Testament article. http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2414366/biblical_manuscripts_and_the_inerrancy.html?cat=37 The New Testament article. The veracity of the Bible stands as valid as any, even more so, than any historical human documents that have ever been written anywhere and at anytime.
You're not paying attention. My initial response was to your contention, in the particular piece you wrote, that the *alleged* fulfillment of OT prophecy by Jesus was outside the bounds of probability to have happened coincidentally. My answer was that supernatural causes are much more improbable, and that the most likely answer is that no prophecies were fulfilled, and that the NT was written to make it *appear* as though they were.
This has nothing to do with first causes, or meteorologists or thunderstorms. You are claiming miracles, which by definition can't be proven, and I'm offering a more parsimonious explanation, one which, if you're honest about it, you must admit makes more sense.
Mr. Grover, I appreciate your comments, but look at probability like this: We hear there's a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast, but the forecaster had no power to create the storms. By assigning a decimal to it (ie, 40%), we assume that the chance will cause the rain. No, it is only the likelihood of it occurring. The storms had a first cause and it was not the forecaster. Chance is powerless. It can not make something happen or create something from nothing. It is a non-being. And besides, it is a noun, not a verb (action). Has anyone ever identified anything in the universe that was uncaused? There is nothing in the universe that we know of that did not have a cause; every physical thing in the universe will have an ending, which infers that it had a beginning. True or not?
Mr. Wellman,
Your response is unresponsive. You are saying that miracles (for which no proof is ever available) are more likely than natural causes, and attempting (vainly) to use probability theory to buttress the claim. Learn something about probability, then come back and talk to me. "Improbable" and "impossible" are two different things. That which is improbable is, by definition, possible. There is no point in assigning a probability value other than zero to something that can't happen.
The Parsimonious Explanation is impossible to prove for one thing, its a claim that God caused himself to exist and also caused the universe to exist - he was the "first cause" - whereas Occam's Razor suggests that if one accepts the possibility of something causing itself then it is better to assume that it was the universe that caused itself rather than God because this explanation involves fewer entities. The negation of Occam's Razor would suggest that an arbitrarily complex explanation is just as good as the simplest one. (E.g. God and his cat created a robot called Sparky who built the universe from parts bought from a shop in another dimension. This argument throws out all logic, including Cause & Effect. The parsimonious Explanation is theoretical & can never be proven conclusively.
Aside from the profound ignorance of probability theory the author proudly displays, did anyone stop to consider that there might be a much more parsimonious explanation for the alleged fulfillment of prophesies?
I think the logical explanation is that no prophecies were fulfilled, but the New Testament was written so as to lead a credulous 1st century audience to believe that they were.
Quite interesting. The numbers weem tough to argue with.