What the Swine Flu (H1N1) Flu Spread in Argentina Says to North America
Learning from the Rapid Spread of Swine Flu in Argentina's Winter
As of two days ago, the World Health Organization reported 1587 confirmed cases and 26 reported deaths in Argentina. These statistics show only cases confirmed by laboratory analysis. Today, El Pais of Madrid reported that Argentina's Health Minister as estimating that Argentina, a country of 40 million people, probably has 100,000 cases of swine flu among the 300,000 flu cases nationwide.
According to a New York Times report in May, the extensive or severe spread of swine flu during the Southern Hemisphere winter flu season would be a "red flag" to scientists. One infectious disease specialist warned that the virus might change in the southern hemisphere and be more virulent when it affects North Americans in Mexico, the United States and Canada in January and February.
In case you're wondering about that big jump from 1587 to 100,000 cases in Argentina, there is a two-part explanation. The first is political, that the Argentine government suppressed information about the extent of the outbreak until after their recent elections. The other is the difference between laboratory-confirmed cases and professional estimates.
Either way, the Argentine government has mud on its face. First it canceled flights between Mexico and Argentina, perhaps a politically popular ploy but, according to the WHO scientists unlikely to stop the spread of the virus. Furthermore, although Argentina does have a large stock of Tamiflu on hand, according to the front page report in El Pais, there is no alcohol for washing hands left in Buenos Aires pharmacies and there is an equal shortage of face masks, although that lack is less serious., One caution from El Pais. During flu season, wash your hands thoroughly with soap or alcohol after handling money, a common carrier of viruses in general.
Remember when flu season moves north this winter, masks are not nearly as important as frequent, thorough handwashing with alcohol or else soap and water.
Now let's hope the course of HN1 in Argentina starts making front page headlines in its northern neighbors, including the United States. and once again, don't forget that thorough handwashing is your best defense when flu sets in.
Sources:
El Pais, July 4, 2009.
WHP, July 3 Report on H1N1 cases by country
New York Times, May 4, 2009. Brian Knowlton
personal knowledge
Published by Rochelle Cashdan
I have worked as an anthropologist, writer, and editor in Oregon. My opinion pieces and short fiction now appear in print in Mexico and on the web. I am an active member of International PEN, the writers hum... View profile
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