What Will Happen to Cuba After Fidel Castro Dies?

The Cuban Dictator Fidel Castro has turned power over to his brother, Raul Castro, and is not expected to return. Instead, the 80-year-old is not even expected to live to the end of next year! There is mystery about the diagnosis of Fidel Castro, but it is believed that he has terminal cancer of the stomach, pancreas or colon. Last week Cuba's foreign minister, Felipe Perez Roque, reinforced this rumor when he said that Castro will not return to power in December, and that "it's a subject on which I don't want to speculate."

The US government and defense officials are not giving too much information since it is a politically sensitive topic, but they are saying that if Fidel Castro is undergoing chemotherapy then he could live up to 18 months. However, without chemotherapy Castro is looking at probably a maximum of eight months to live. The US officials are not commenting on how they obtained Castro's health information, but it is suggested that US spy agencies who study pictures, public statements, etc. determined his illness.

Fidel Castro underwent intestinal surgery sometime in July or August of 2006, and Perez Roque is saying that Castro is still recovering from this surgery. But from recent photos and videos of Fidel Castro that were released in late October, it is easy to see that his movements are shaky and his body seems weak. Also, in some of the photos there is a dark lesion that can be seen on his neck. Fidel Castro is also not guaranteed to be able to make his planned 80th birthday celebration next month, which has already been postponed from his August 13th birthday.

Brian Latell of the CIA is convinced that even if Fidel Castro does die nothing major will happen in Cuba. He says that there have been no reports of riots nor has there been any credible challenge to succession. The US government is not taking any chances with this situation. The Miami based US Southern Command on training the Coast Guard and Homeland Security just in case there is a mass migration from Cuba to the US. The US is not expecting a mass migration but they do want to be ready just in case.

The question remains that if Fidel Castro does die then will the US try to make Cuba a democracy? Well Condoleezza Rice said if there is ever a transition in Cuba, then it is the goal of the US to insist the people of Cuba make a choice and hold democratic elections. The US is also predicting Cuba will embrace open trade to try and boost economy, so it will be interesting to see exactly what the US plans to do when and if this transition occurs.