What's Going on in Alaska

Alaska is a state mired in scandal right now. The Republican Brand that has ruled the state for 30 years is falling apart whether it be Ted Stevens being indicted on 7 counts of making false statements while the Alaskan House Member gets investigated for similar charges, or our own Republican Vice Presidential Prospect having charges levied against her that she settled a personal vendetta by using her power to have someone fired.

Mccain's got a lock on roughly 53K votes while Obama is going to take 55K of those votes.

What happens to the remainder of the votes?

My theory is that the 40% Independent vote is going to come out 60-40 for Obama given the Republican scandals that will be in full swing come number. The Republicans will go out and vote for Bob Barr, not vote, or suck it up and vote for Obama. I'd give Obama 25% of the Republican's at this point and time.

The Democratic challenger to Ted Stevens currently takes 20% of the Republicans from Stevens while winning the unaffiliated 66-34. Given the current situation in Alaska, I would for the first time give Obama a greater than 50% chance of winning that state come November.

Best thing that could happen for Obama: Mccain picks Sarah Palin for VP and his campaign falls amid scandals erupting in Alaska.
Worst thing that could happen for Obama: Mike Gravel decides to run for the Senate, backing Bob Barr in the race and this causes some of Gravel's Democratic supporters to switch allegiance and vote for Barr.