When You Should Draft QB's in Fantasy Football

Taking One Too Early is a Mistake

Statsman
Why should you listen to my fantasy football advice? I have won 5 fantasy football championships in 9 years of playing fantasy football.

Unless you play in a fantasy football league that favors QB scoring, you should not draft a QB before the 5th round in your fantasy football draft. Many fantasy football owners will take a QB in the 1st or 2nd rounds in their drafts. That is a big mistake likely to cost them any chance at winning their fantasy football league championship unless every other owner does the same. You can gain a big advantage on your opponents if you let them draft QB's while you fill more important spots on your roster.

In almost all fantasy football leagues you start just one QB. There are 32 teams in the NFL. If there are 10 teams in your fantasy football league you will never have a problem getting a starting QB. Even if every other owner in your league has 3 starting QB's on their rosters, that would still leave 5 starting QB's available on the waiver wires.

As every veteran fantasy football owner knows many teams will keep just two QB's on their rosters and a few will even keep just one QB. Unless you play in a very deep keeper league, QB's will always be available on the waiver wires. So having a starting QB is never a problem.

The difference between the top ranked QB and the 10th ranked QB is not that great. Last season in a standard fantasy football league I play in Super Bowl MVP Peyton Manning of the Indianapolis Colts was the top QB and scored 412 fantasy points. Ironically, the 10th ranked QB was Rex Grossman of the Super Bowl runner-up Chicago Bears at 241 points. A difference of 171 points or 10.7 points per week (16 week average).

The top ranked RB last season was Ladainian Tomlinson of the San Diego Chargers with 444 points. In most fantasy football leagues you start two RB's. The 20th ranked RB last season was Travis Henry of the Tennessee Titans at 160 points. A difference of 284 points or 17.8 points per week.

The difference between the top usable QB's and top usable RB's last season was 7.1 points per fantasy week in favor of the RB's. Add in the fact that you use at least two RB's vs one QB and you can double that number. Even if the difference was the same the fact that you use two RB's vs just one QB makes the QB position much less important.

Not drafting a QB until after the 5th round is a tried and true formula for me. I have been playing fantasy football for 9 years. Over the 9 years I have won 5 fantasy football championships having played in a total of 21 fantasy football leagues over the 9 years.

The starting QB's in the playoffs for each of my 5 fantasy championships were Brad Johnson (then with the Washington Redskins), Gus Frerotte (Denver Broncos), Kordell Stewart (Pittsburgh Steelers), Kerry Collins (Oakland Raiders) and David Gerrard (Jacksonville Jaguars). Not exactly a who's who of the greatest QB's. With the exception of Johnson, whom I drafted, the other four QB's were all waiver wire pickups.

Peyton Manning might have won his first Super Bowl last season but in the 21 leagues I have played in to date, not one owner has won a fantasy football championship with Peyton Manning. I am sure that this is true in most other leagues too. Manning has a long history of not having the greatest weeks during fantasy football playoff time (weeks 14-16 during the NFL season).

Each year there will QB's available on the waiver wires who will come off the bench in the NFL and have great games. Last season Tony Romo of the Dallas Cowboys didn't even play in the first 5 games, but ended the year with 19 TD's. And he had a 5 TD game vs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thanksgiving in Dallas on national TV.

If you want to gain an edge on your opponents this year in your fantasy football league, let them draft QB's in the early rounds of your draft while you fill the more important spots on your roster.

Published by Statsman

Love stats. From Economics to Sports.  View profile

11 Comments

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  • Lisa Riggs7/21/2007

    Interesting! I am emailing to my brother. Thanks!

  • Rose7/11/2007

    I love football. Great job here.

  • freakmamma7/10/2007

    Between this and the baseball articles .. I am learning a lot but I'm still pretty clueless about most sports :]

  • Summer Banks7/6/2007

    You sure know your stuff! Great article.

  • Zac Wassink7/5/2007

    i always try to start w/ peyton...mainly because of my huge man crush on him though

  • G. Stolyarov II7/4/2007

    Informative article!

  • Becky Gallops7/3/2007

    My husband plays fantasy footbell, but I never really knew what it was until I read this. Very informative!

  • Joniv7/2/2007

    I've never played, either. Football is a mystery to me, but this might be a great way to learn.

  • Jeanne Marie Kerns7/2/2007

    I have never played either, but since i have read all of Michael's articles on it, I am sure I would have noooo problem..:-)

  • Ryan Stephens7/2/2007

    Very VERY True. I love watching people take Peyton with their first few picks. If only Shaun Alexander wouldn't have gotten hurt last year and Ronnie Brown would've performed up to par. I had to settle for a 2nd .. lol

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