When Not to Bet on Favorites at the Racetrack

Saratoga race track otherwise known as the "graveyard of favorites". Why is this title so important and how can it help you make smarter wagers at horse racing?

This statistic has been beaten to death but we all know in horse racing the post time favorite (or the chalk) wins about 35% of all races. This cannot be disputed.

But that fact is for ALL races and ALL race tracks. I don't think anyone reading this article has the monetary wherewithal to bet all race at all tracks.

So while this is a pretty number, it cannot alway be taken into consideration.

For example Saratoga. It's a short meet that runs a couple of months. Therefore there is not a large enough pool of races for the "averages" to work out just right. This may sound unscientific, but explain to me why the favorites constantly get beat there?

So if I have any advice as when NOT to play favorites it would be at shortened meets like Saratoga, Del Mar and Fairplex to name a few.

Did you know there are 2 kinds of favorites?

One, is the favorite as picked in the Morning Line and maintains favoritism to post time. And the other is a horse where the bettors make him, or bet him down to be the favorite - although he could be as high as 20-1 in the morning line.

Which is the better wager? Here we go:

The Morning Line favorite who goes off as the favorite wins about 35% of the time and comes in 2nd about 56% of the time.

While bet down favorites win 24% of the time and come in 2nd 44% of the time.

Big, big difference right? The lesson here is don't chase the money.

So if you are using one of the many horse racing systems out there that promote the favorite. Keep that little fact in mind and you'll be ahead by 14%.