When Will the World's Oil Supply Peak?

Modern consumerism might be set to colide with the stark reality that the Earth only holds so much oil. The trend towards increasing gas-guzzling seems to be hastening the moment, too. In the United States, where SUVs and Minivans have become the motor vehicles of popular choice, oil consumption is expected to grow by 50% in the next twenty years. When you consider that use is also on the rise in Asia, where there is a much higher population, it becomes hard to imagine how the planet can continue to endure such depletion for long.

Economists and geologists continue to debate the issue, and no one seems able to make an educated prediction (one hears estimates ranging anywhere from 5 to 90 years), but most agree that we will reach the peak of cheap oil's supply within our lifetimes. For the United States, a country that boasts only 5% of the world's population and yet consumes a quarter of the world's oil, such an occurence will have dire economic and social consequences. Perhaps only by developing sustainable energy sources, and beginning to curb our consumption of oil, can we weather this storm when it inevitably comes.

We could be described as being an oil-based society. Not only does it power our various modes of transportation, it also goes into most synthetic fabrics, plastic, and even the food in our supermarkets via hydrocarbon based pesticides and fertilizers. Oil is America's panacea and also, itself, a source of woe. The defiling of our environment at home and the troubling nature of our foreign relations are both outgrowths of our dependence upon oil.

Already, old sources of the precious resource have become unreliable. With the exception of Alaska (where production is merely declining), the U.S. is tapped out - other states (like Texas) peaked around 1970, and produce about half the oil now as they did then. Oil companies have been obliged to venture into places like West Africa and Russia. The Middle East is, of course, the mother lode of crude oil, but because of prevalent war and instability, we rely upon those countries at our peril.

Optimists still believe that, overall, there's much more to be discovered, but that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) - which includes Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia - have little incentive to drill for more reserves when they already have a surplus. The Unites States Geological Survey (USGS) also drew conclusions that there was at least 50% more oil left than had previously been supposed, and that much of it was in the Middle East. In the final analysis, however, such statements merely point to a delay, and not a way of averting, the coming crisis. It may be symptomatic of the modern mindset that often forgets to consider generations to come - and the problems they will inherit.

Also, when supplies dwindle to the extent that they have - and we examine all the other consequences our dependence on oil has wrought - the question may shift from "Will there be enough?" to "Is it worth the true cost that we're paying for it?"