When Will the World's Oil Supply Run Dry?

The per barrel price of oil is rising at an alarming rate. The collective focus of the world seems to be on Global Warming at this confusing time, however, there is an issue that has been largely ignored, that issue being, what will happen when we run out of oil?

Economists and Sociologists have long speculated on the effects $15.00 per gallon gasoline on our society, not just in the way of economic failure, but how a complete and total *end of gas* would affect crime rates.

In 1956, geophysicist Marion King Hubbert created a method of tracking when each oil producing nation would reach *Peak Production*, after which nations would see a steady decline of oil field discovery and sustainability. I am not qualified to really explain the intricacies of the model, but the basic idea is that fossil fuel production, on the level of individual geographic areas, as well as the world in entirety, follows a bell-shaped curve which in turn provides information as to when production of petroleum will *top out*, causing the world to be on its way to depletion.

Hubbert's initial presentation to the American Petroleum Institute suggested that the United States' *Peak* would occur sometime between 1965 and 1970, (actual peak was in fact in 1970.) He felt that oil reserves, when first discovered, are utilized MORE in the first few years of production than in the full term of the life of the reserve. Hubbert estimated that somewhere between 15 to 20 percent of petroleum extracted from any given reserve was within the first 2 years of detection of the field.

*Peak* production is reached when half of the reserve's total worth is used. This theory applies not only to crude oil reserves, but also coal, metal, phosphorous, and nuclear raw materials.

So, what does this mean for translation of *literal peaks* as compared to the Hubbert's *predicted peaks*? Well, in the cases of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Saudi Arabia, per unit production of crude oil has remained (about) the same since about 1998. The highest percentage of growth has been in Iran, Kuwait, and Venezuela. The statistics of crude oil production in Iraq has risen drastically between 1992 and 2004, which many experts in the field feel was caused by new discoveries in reserves by foreign military.

It cannot be definitively calculated as to when each of these nations will reach the *peak*, although Hubbert's theory pinpointed these years as between 1998 and 1991. Naturally, these figures vary based on many factors, including world total population and world demand for different types of fossil fuel energy, including home heat and gasoline consumption, (which has been at a SHOCKINGLY higher percentage since the introduction of SUV's by commercial vehicle manufacturers.)

American society could almost literally crumble due to a certain and inevitable lack of gasoline. We have to think about that day when we cannot drive to work, when we cannot call a taxi, and when we cannot order pizza because the overall cost of gasoline has exceeded the total overhead of industries that rely on transport as a way of distribution.

Without going off on some tangent about energy conservation, collectively, as a nation, is it acceptable to talk about the damage that can, (and probably will) be done when Americans realize that it is unaffordable to drive to work, to the grocery store, to the movies, or cross country for a family vacation? And when gasoline siphoning (the practice of transferring gas from one vehicle to another illegally) is rampant in our everyday lives, how will we handle protecting our vehicles?

At the end of the day, we all logically accept the idea that we cannot MAKE oil, and that one day, there will be no more, thus no more gasoline and natural gas to heat our homes, schools, and government buildings. Environmentalists could stand to take a new approach to this vast and complicated fact by explaining to the masses that this moment IS coming...and sooner than most are willing to believe.

Here we have the closest viable timeframe for when this time will be, and unfortunately, for some countries, the end is near. OPEC claimed in 2000 that oil costs would remain between $22-$28 US Dollars per barrel, a claim that was quickly squashed by $30 per barrel, then $60 per barrel, and most recently $97 per barrel. This is a fate that cannot be reversed.