Where Will Social Security Be in 30 Years?

As the 21st century moves forward in America, socioeconomic and demographic trends emerging in the nation pose their own unique challenges. To be more specific, America is faced with an aging population, increasing costs of national defense and social programs, and the ongoing effort to balance the federal budget. All of these challenges place a tremendous strain on programs that were created to serve the interests of the masses, such as Social Security. With this in mind, the question of whether or not Social Security will be around in thirty years poses an interesting argument. A position will be taken on this argument, and reinforced with secondary sources. This paper will conclude with recommendations as well.

Thesis Statement

While the conventional wisdom of the average American holds that Social Security is akin to a sinking ship, and that the future of the program is all but doomed, this is not a completely valid argument. Actually, the argument that is correct, and can be validated through additional sources, is that Social Security will be around in thirty years. With this thesis in mind, evidence will now be presented to reinforce the argument.

Reinforcement of the Argument

Maintaining that Social Security is going to survive over the long term is far from a glib statement without proof; rather, a closer look at the many underlying factors of the Social Security issue result in compelling proof of the likelihood of its long term viability.

First, the very nature of Social Security itself may hold one of the keys to its future. One of the largest groups of benefactors from the program is the senior citizens of the nation, many of whom will be relying on Social Security as their primary income upon retirement. Far from quiet and feeble individuals, senior citizens en masse represent a huge political lobby, thanks in large part to organizations like the AARP, who gather senior citizens together under common causes important to them (Price, 1997). Going hand in hand with the lobbying power of senior citizens is political clout. Commanding large blocks of potential votes for elected officials, senior citizens have the ear of all levels of government. If , in this instance, any elected official was foolhardy enough to advocate the dissolution of Social Security, he or she would very likely see an abrupt end to their political career.

Aside from those who are now senior citizens, as was alluded to earlier, the demographic trend in America is currently leaning toward a rapidly aging population; as such, those who have the most vested interest in Social Security will only continue to grow in future years (Rappaport, 1993), thereby amplifying the fight to save Social Security and the ensuing political pressure to do so.

There is also a public welfare dynamic that supports the argument that Social Security will be around in thirty years. Having shown that the American population is aging and will continue to do so, if Social Security is phased out, the welfare of the individuals who rely upon this program for survival comes into question, and someone will have to take care of these deprived individuals (Olsen, 2002). It would be nonsensical to take away Social Security, as the program, for all of its flaws, gives the government the ability to tax wage earners in support of the program. If this tax revenue is stopped, and the government still has to provide for those in need as it surely will do without Social Security in place, an attempt to solve one problem will be replaced with a much larger crisis.

Replacement of Social Security with a privatized system is a popular remedy for phasing out Social Security, but this is an unlikely scenario, given the fact that private accounts would only create a feeding frenzy among Wall Street power brokers to collect huge commissions on financial transactions, while the account holders are left with nothing (Baker, 1998). The bottom line is that ending Social Security is unlikely and impractical.

Conclusion/Recommendations

In conclusion, as has been shown, from a variety of viewpoints, Social Security will be around in thirty years; however, this is not to say that the program does not need help. In researching the Social Security issue, there are recommendations that have come about as a positive by-product of the research. Simply put, in closing, it is recommended that Social Security benefits be revisited, and perhaps adjusted to encourage individuals to take more responsibility for their retirement finances, and qualifications for benefits are closely reviewed. Then, and only then, will the future of the program be assured.

References

Baker, D. (1998, July). Nine Misconceptions about Social Security: . Privatize Social Security? Any Money Saved Would Be Eaten Up in Wall Street Transaction Costs . The Atlantic Monthly, 282,.
Dishonest Social Security Ads. (2006, September 17). The Washington Times, p. 03.
Invest Social Security Trust Fund Surpluses?. (2006, August 20). The Washington Times, p. B05.
Mcmanus, J. F. (2004, May 31). The Truth about Social Security: The Truth Behind the Popular Myths and Outright Lies of Social Security Proves That This Form of Socialism Must Be Rejected in Favor of Private Enterprise. The New American, 20, 8+.
Olsen, K. A., & Hoffmeyer, D. (2002). Social Security's Special Minimum Benefit. Social Security Bulletin, 64(2), 1+.
Price, M. C. (1997). Justice between Generations: The Growing Power of the Elderly in America. Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers.
Rappaport, A. M. & Schieber, S. J. (Eds.). (1993). Demography and Retirement: The Twenty-First Century. Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers.