First Ballot Hall of Famers
Given the introduction, Ken Griffey Jr. is the obvious first ballot Hall of Famer. Only 4 other players in baseball history have hit more home runs, and only 2 have won more Gold Gloves.
The other player that meets the definition of first ballot Hall of Famer is Alex Rodriguez. As of this writing he ranks 7th in career home runs, owns 3 MVPs, and a few Gold Gloves too. To add to this, most of his success was while playing shortstop. Any additional accomplishments in his career will simply be bonus for his Hall of Fame candidacy.
Ivan Rodriguez should also be a first ballot Hall of Famer. He owns the most Gold Gloves of any catcher in major league history. He career offensive numbers, while not matching up to the sluggers of his generation, were stellar for his position.
Derek Jeter was not the most elite shortstop in baseball during his career. For any given year, Nomar Garciaparra, Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Tejada, and Hanley Ramirez have probably been considered superior. However, he's shown to be a consistently elite shortstop for a long time. His eventual 3000th career hit will solidfy his first ballot election.
Definite Hall of Famers
Despite 2010 being just his 10th year in the majors, Albert Pujols is almost assuredly a lock for the Hall of Fame. No Hall of Fame eligible player with atleast 3 MVP awards is not in the Hall of Fame. A few more years of any decent success will make Albert Pujols into a first ballot Hall of Famer.
Chipper Jones is also a definite Hall of Famer, however possibly not on the first ballot. His career numbers don't quite stand out amongst the other sluggers of his generation. He has a chance at being a first ballot Hall of Famer, as voters will give him bonus points for playing his entire career in Atlanta.
If Ichiro Suzuki can get to 3000 Major League career hits, he'll be a first ballot Hall of Famer too. If he doesn't reach it, he'll still be a Hall of Famer with his two batting titles, a MVP, and presently .333 career batting average.
Both Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera should eventually get into the Hall of Fame. Both will go in as the definition of an elite modern day closer. The saves statistic is not what it used to be, so to go into the Hall of Fame as a closer means you must have done the job consistently over your entire career. Both of these players have been doing it for 15 years.
Omar Vizquel will go into the Hall of Fame as his generation's Ozzie Smith or Luis Aparicio. While a typical light hitter, his career 2700 plus hits does stand out compared to his slick fielding peers.
Vladimir Guerrero should also go in as one of the greatest sluggers of his generation, a right fielder with a great arm, and a .322 career batting average. He placed in the top 6 of MVP voting 5 times, winning once.
Borderline Hall of Famers
Andy Pettite is the most interesting player under discussion. On the one hand, he was a very good pitcher with a long career. His career statistics are very favorable for his generation of players. However, he lacks a certain dominance on the mound that other players in the Hall of Fame had. His career numbers are not too disimilar from Catfish Hunter and Juan Marichal's, however the later players each had atleast 4-5 years of dominance in the league. If Andy Pettite can play more years and get closer to atleast 275 career wins, he might be another Bert Blyleven.
If Manny Ramirez hadn't tested positive for PEDs in 2009, he wouldn't be in this category. His career numbers, even in this generation of sluggers, stands out. However voters have already shown, with Mark McGwire, how a history of PEDs affects your chances. They may give Manny Ramirez a pass since he did not test positive for steroids. If they happen to show a change of heart, the voting for Rafael Palmeiro may be an indication.
Jim Thome will provide an interesting test on how voters judge sluggers in the steroids era. His career numbers stand out and he should finish his career in the top ten of career home runs. However, voters seem to be leery of one dimensional sluggers from this generation of players, even though Jim Thome never tested positive for PEDs. It will be interesting to see how sabermetrics affect the voting, since his .959 OPS is still 19th all time, yet he has a somewhat disappointing career .277 batting average. As a comparison to Vladimir Guerrero, he placed in the top 6 of MVP voting only twice, peaking at 4th place. He's not so disimilar to Carlos Delgado, but with a slightly longer and healthier career.
Falling Short
Jim Edmunds owns 8 career Gold Gloves, tied for eigth all time amongst outfielders. He owns a career .904 OPS. However his career offensive numbers don't stand out for this generation of players. If he had reached atleast 400 career home runs, it might be a different story. He will likely fall into the same ranks as Dale Murphy.
Edmund's former teammate Scott Rolen is in a similar boat. He owns 7 Gold Gloves at third base, which are third all time for the position. His batting statistics are good, certainly superior to Brooks Robinson's career batting numbers, but falls short of what was expected of a hitter of his era. If he could have secured atleast 10-12 Gold Gloves, the discussion might be different.
Unlike the two previous players, Jason Giambi does possess career offensive numbers that warrant stronger Hall of Fame consideration for his generation of players. However, his ties to steroids will ultimately put him into the same camp as his former teammate Mark McGwire. The career numbers are quite strong, but not so incredible that the steroids history can be ignored.
Jason Giambi's former teammate Miguel Tejada is also in the same situation. His career numbers as a shortstop stand out, with a MVP trophy too. All those lingering steroid allegations will shadow his accomplishments.
References
"Baseball-Reference.com - Major League Baseball Statistics and History", Baseball-Reference
Various, "Major League Baseball Most Valuable Player Award", Wikipedia
Published by Jacob M. Lee
I'm a professional software engineer and graduated with a BS and MS Computer Science degree. I have interests in various technology, software development, baseball, finance, economics, and video games. View profile
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