Which Democratic Candidate Will Win Iowa?

According to usaelectionpolls.com, Iowa's latest presidential poll shows Hillary Clinton is in the lead with 28%, but it's only a slight lead over Obama. Health care is a big issue and she seems to have won the approval of both the democrats and the republicans. Clinton proposes that the under-insured and un-insured have the same insurance as federal employees and that it will be paid for with tax credits. Earlier she vowed to end the war in Iraq. She now says she will keep some troops there and continue combat missions, which may hurt her chances of nomination. Despite the fact that she would be the first woman president ever elected, she feels that she is the best one qualified for the presidency. Clinton is hoping that other Iowans feel the same way, asking them to vote for which candidate they feel would make the best president. However, it seems that many Iowans do not trust the Clintons, which may weigh the vote in Edwards' direction if the vote was for the most honest politician.

Barack Obama is at 23%. Since June, Obama has had a steady climb in the polls until just recently. If elected, he would be the first black president. His biggest supporters are blacks and young Americans. Although, he has been able to prove his stance on the war in Iraq by citing that he voted against it 5 years ago and he is still against it now. However, he says that he believes America is on the wrong battleground and says the right battleground is going after Al-Qaeda and stabilizing Afghanistan. Obama seems to have borrowed from Clinton's plan on health insurance saying that he feels every uninsured American should have the same coverage he has as a Senator and the insured would receive a $2500 deduction on their health insurance premiums under his plan. While Democrats prefer his views on race relations, it probably won't be enough to win him the nomination, as one of his biggest problems is his experience level.

John Edwards peaked out in March and has steadily declined all the way down to 20% in the polls. He is one of the few candidates whose election wouldn't make him a first anything in presidential history. His plan to build one America seems to have everything a real Democrat would support, but having a small campaign budget has not allowed him to strongly publicize his campaign. He has vowed that while Clinton would leave troops in Iraq, he will end the war. His chances of winning could increase if he could show a strong plan to end the war and take a stronger stance on health care and foreign policy. Edwards seemed to agree with others who have regarded him as not being a good politician, when he campaigned to Iowans to vote for him because he is someone they can trust. Even though he doesn't have the largest campaign fund, he's banking on the idea that Iowans will vote for him because they will feel he is more honest and has better integrity and character than the other candidates.

Bill Richardson currently is at 9% in the polls. His election would be a first also. If elected, he would be the first Hispanic president. With so much focus on the war in Iraq, his declaration of being the most internationally experienced and one that would go after Osama Bin Laden, could have Iowans leaning in his favor. It seems there are many Iowans who don't know much about the Governor from New Mexico, but with an endorsement from the Stock the Arms Race group in Iowa, it could strengthen his chances at the caucus.

Joe Biden is at 6% in the polls. The other two candidates Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich each have 1%. Unless something drastic happens, I don't foresee these three having a chance at the nomination.