Who Will Advance to and Win the World Series?

With the playoffs beginning today in major league baseball which playoff teams are statistically the most likely to make it to the World Series?

Historically, great pitching gets you into the World Series. Out of the 210 pennant winners since 1901, 45.2% of the teams that led their league in fewest runs allowed advanced to the World Series. Do we have an teams this year in the playoffs who led their league in fewest runs allowed? The answer is yes just one - the Boston Red Sox led the American League in fewest runs allowed this season. So the Red Sox are the most likely team from this year's contenders to advance to the World Series.

However, 41.9% of the time the team that leads its league in runs scored also advanced to the World Series. Both teams that led the league in runs scored advanced into the playoffs. In the American League the New York Yankees led in most runs scored and in the National League the Philadelphia Phillies scored the most runs. So both of those teams have very good statistical chances of also advancing to the World Series.

In the National League this year the San Diego Padres led the league in fewest runs allowed. But they were eliminated in the play-in game by the Colorado Rockies after Trevor Hoffman melted down yet again in a critical situation and gave up a two run lead in extra innings. In a surprise this year the Chicago Cubs finished second in the NL in fewest runs allowed despite playing in a good hitters park.

So in the NL we have the team that scored the most runs, the Phillies, and the team that allowed the 2nd fewest runs in the league in the Cubs. Statistically, the odds are pretty high that the NL team in the World Series this year will be either the Cubs or the Phillies. I'd rate the Cubs a slight favorite over the Phillies.

In the American League the Red Sox have to be the favorite statistically to make it to the World Series on the basis of their having led the AL in fewest runs allowed. The Yankees must be considered the 2nd favorite behind the Red Sox and not too far behind on the basis of their having led the AL in most runs scored. The odds are pretty good that the AL team in the World Series will be either the Red Sox or the Yankees. I'd rate the Red Sox are a slight favorite to make it over the Yankees.

What do the bookmakers say?

In the National League the Phillies are a slight favorite, 9/5 odds to win the pennant and advance to the World Series, over the Cubs 2-1 odds.

In the American League the Yankees are slight favorites, 7/5 odds to win the pennant, over the Red Sox 8/5 odds.

In baseball anything can happen and any one of the teams in the playoffs could catch enough breaks and advance to the World Series but the odds are against the Rockies, and Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL and the Cleveland Indians and Los Angeles Angels in the AL from making it to the World Series.

If you want to bet on which team will win the World Series before the playoffs even begin you must bet on either the Phillies or the Yankees. Historically teams which lead their league in runs scored have won 44 World Series while teams which lead their league in fewest runs allowed have won 42 World Series.