Who Will Win Survivor China

After last night's Survivor episode, the supercilious JR has had his come-uppance and is gone. Good riddance, I say. His gambler's calculations couldn't deal with the subtleties of a game where the rules change every week. This outcome was a given. No one liked the snake.

This season of Survivor is oddly boring, and there is no one person that I seem to like, just because of who they are. Maybe this makes me more objective in looking at the possible outcomes. Maybe not!

There are eight survivors left: James- the gravedigger, Courtney- the waitress, Denise- the school lunch lady, Peih-Gee- the jeweler, Frosti- the student, Erick- the musician, Amanda- the hiking guide, and Todd- the flight attendant.

Who will make the final four?

James, the incredible hulk except he's neither green nor angry, is just too powerful a player. He's on the chopping block from now on. But the group may have missed their chance to get rid of him, by not being unified last night. Now James knows that they may blind side him. Since there have already been two immunity challenges that didn't cater to James' strength, it's a fair assumption that the next one will, and he will win. If he wins even one of the individual challenges, and uses the two idols that guarantees him the final four. But does he have the people skills to know when to play the idols? It's not clear... it was the rest of the group's lack of direction that kept him safe last night, not his ability to read the wind. I'm guessing that he squeaks into the final four by the skin of his teeth.

Courtney, who looks like a survivor from some wreck that happened decades ago on an island with no food at all, is a non-entity. But she proved last night that she has some skills. Sometimes there is more than one immunity challenge which involves balance, so she's got a chance to win again. Meanwhile, no one is paying any attention to her at all. If their were only six players left at this point I'd say she'll make the final four. As it is, she's too weak overall, and she'll be voted out.

Denise, a friendly underdog, probably won't make the cut. She's unlikely to win any of the immunity challenges, and although everyone likes her, her refusal to make alliances (even though everyone knows that alliances are often broken) will probably be her downfall.

Peih-Gee, too much of a schemer, knows she's got a target on her back. She did manage to convince enough people that last night was Jean-Robert's night to go home, but even so, she doesn't have enough of a following to save her. She'll be out.

Frosti, surprisingly tenuous, is the all around good guy. He's strong in challenges, and might win one of the individual immunities. He adapts to whichever way the game seems to go. I think he'll also be in the final four.

Erik is another non-entity. He's cheerful and obviously still there, but he's never really had much of a lead role since he gave James access to both idols. James has turned his back on this amazing gift, and Erik hasn't been able to figure out how to make anything work for him since. I don't think he's enough of an emotional player to make the cut.

Amanda distrusts Todd from time to time. She's been willing to stick with his schemes, but is frustrated at his inability to be consistent at all from day to day. Meanwhile, she quietly remains neither too strong nor too weak. Final four, for sure.

Todd will be the only real schemer left in the group when Peih-Gee is gone. My money's on him for the final two.

So, who will win? I think the final two could be Frosti and Todd. That would make the jury Jaime, JR, Courtney, Denise, Peih-Gee, and Erik. I never seem to predict well what the jury will do. Based on that fact, Frosti will win. At this point, it looks to me like Todd is playing the best game.

Todd, for the winner of Survivor China.