Who Will Win Survivor: China?

With James in possession of both of the Immunity Idols and the greatest athletic ability out of the group as Survivor: China races toward its culmination he looks to be in a strong position to make it to the final four- but wait.

Todd's been scheming about blindsiding fan-favorite James after James didn't give him an Immunity Idol, and James looks as if he might fall for it. He commented before the tribal council that he didn't even think he would take the Immunity Idol with him because he was sure he was safe. Uhhh, right. He has a target the size of Jean-Robert's ego painted on his back, and doesn't seem to know it. The man needs to start strategizing and fast because as past seasons have shown, brawn will get you by for a while, but once the tribes are combined you'd better have a plan. Aligning with Todd may have proven more advantageous in the long run than an extra Immunity Idol, but that remains to be seen.

Though Todd had convinced Amanda and Frosti to blindside James, they didn't follow through because they decided that as big of a threat as James is, Jean-Robert had finally become too much of an annoyance to brook for another week. Courtney, who outbalanced James in the Immunity Challenge- proving there is actually something she's good at- made the observation regarding Jean-Robert: "He's become the Susan Lucci of tribal council; his name is always up there, but he never quite gets voted out." The professional gambler's streak came to an end, though, just as Susan Lucci's did.

Over all, Amanda and Todd who have a strong alliance, seem to be very good bets for the final four. Both are generally well-liked and have stuck together consistently. They both seem to get the strategy. Frosti is part of their alliance as well and looks to be an important swing vote, which places him in a fairly good position right now, it would seem.

At the moment the survivor who looks the most vulnerable is Peih-Gee, who along with Frosti and Erik, is a minority former ZhanHu member. Peih-Gee has the added problem of being both distrusted and disliked, though, after she and Jaime revealed they had thrown an Immunity Challenge to boot one of their own, giving James real reason to seek his alliances elsewhere. Plus she's just plain irritating. Things can change, though. She actually brought her bags to the Tribal Council, as did Erik, but to thier surprise it was Jean-Robert who was sent packing.

Frosti helped Fei Long search for the Immunity Idol and has ingratiated himself with them in general, seemingly having befriended Courtney of late. Erik, whose survivor-annoyingness-quotient is nowhere near Peih-Gee's, will probably continue a bit longer because he plays well with others.

The under-the-radar survivors are Courtney, who is so inept at everything (except balancing) that she isn't seen as a threat by anyone, and Denise. Denise, in fact, is all but invisible. She wasn't chosen for either team in the Reward Challenge and when tribal council met she didn't appear to be aware of what the others intended. She may not like being left out of the loop, but she has been a hard worker and easy to get along with, so she's probably not going anywhere immediately. Invisibility can have its advantages. They won't vote you out if they've forgotten you're there. Though either of these two might make it to the final four by virtue harmlessness, it seems unlikely that they will win many votes in the end.

Final four predictions: Amanda and Todd may be shoe-ins. If James doesn't strategize, they are. And if that happens, one of them will win.

The whole game could change, though, if James comes up with a new alliance. Denise is still there, but of course he's forgotten (one of the drawbacks of invisibility). Erik is non-hated, fairly good at Immunity Challenges, and has good reason to align with James. As does Pieh-Gee. A new alliance could certainly heat things up. It actually makes sense for James to keep the Immunity Idols if he can create one. Maybe he has more game than he's so far let anyone see. Actually he has made a few smart moves, like siding with Fei Long.

According to the poll on the Survivor: China website James has an enormous majority of the fans pulling for him- fifty percent; compared to next-highest, Todd at just twelve. If he makes it to the final four he has definitely won most everybody's respect and hardly anybody's disdain.

At least of the under-the-radar players will probably make it to final four. If Amanda and Todd make it they'll want to be sure James isn't there, for sure. And if James delights everyone and becomes as great a strategist as he is a physical contender he'd certainly want to eliminate Todd and Amanda as quickly as possible.

Next to go saving a major realignment: Pieh-Gee, who was only saved last time by the miracle that there is actually someone more disliked than she.

It will be interesting to see what the next few weeks bring. Hopefully there will be some surprises.