Why Another Major Hurricane Will Hit the New York Area

In the beginning of the summer a Home Depot in Queens, New York handed out pamphlets pertaining to hurricane preparedness and how to stay safe after the storm. Inside was a list of names for the 2007 Atlantic storm season and a guarantee that in the event of such conditions the store would be open to supply homeowner's with lumber and emergency kits. This is a city that experiences the weakened winds common amongst storms downgraded to tropical depressions by the time they move up the Atlantic coast into the cooler waters around New Jersey and New York. However, for years forecasters have predicted the city was due for a big hit in the area of a Category 2 or 3 hurricane, with winds up to 130 MPH and a storm surge of up to 12 feet. Many say a hurricane of this magnitude will never come to the area, that the predictions are only meant as a scare. Given recent events in Staten Island and Brooklyn, where an F2 tornado with winds up to 135 MPH tore through residential neighborhoods,demolishing a church's stained glass window, toppling trees and even tearing off one homeowner's roof, a major hurricane in the region could only be the next step. In lieu of odd events, it seems more plausible to continue the meterological trend.

Why should New Yorkers prepare for hurricanes the same way their counterparts in areas such as the Florida Panhandle and the Carolinas are? The year 1938 should be a good indicator: it was September 21st when a Category 3 made landfall in New York's Long Island and the coastal communities of Connecticut and Rhode Island, causing over $300 million in damage and taking 700 lives. Residents of the area felt that hurricanes were problems for those living in the South and that they were far from any threat of danger. As photographs from the period show, people built their homes nearly on top of beaches, as if shaking their fist to challenge Mother Nature to put their lives in danger. Storm surge was the main cause of death for many of the victims, with tides up to 25 feet.

Residents in Manhattan and other low-lying areas of the city have comparable risks to those living in 1938 New England, only made more devastating given the much larger amount of people present along the seaboard today. If a Category 2 or 3 storm were to hit New York, Battery Park City, both a commercial and residential vicinity in lower Manhattan, would turn into an extension of the East River. People trying to evacuate would drown in the mass hysteria, and many more would be injured.

The best way to prepare for such a catastrophic event would be to take weather forecasts seriously. Those living in pre-war New England never imagined that they would be sharing everything in common with Floridians. Technology is far more advanced than ever, and if meteorologists and hurricane experts notice an unusual hurricane path like the one in 1938, it could mean a return of trouble for the Northeast. If it's predicted that a killer storm is set to make landfall for the area, residents should start packing and head further inland. Ideally, anyone who lives under 20 feet above sea level should seek a higher elevation if they cannot travel far. High rise apartment dwellers should avoid storm surge by climbing to a higher floor.

The hurricane season ends in November. If New Yorkers are lucky they will once again have dodged a deadly bullet.