Why the BBWAA Did the Right Thing by Not Electing Jim Rice to the Hall of Fame

In his 14th year on the ballot for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Jim Rice garnered 72.2 percent of the votes, falling just 16 votes shy of the 75 percent total required for induction. Jim Rice has one more year left on the ballot for the BBWAA and it would be a shock if he did not get elected next year.

And that would clearly be the wrong decision.

There are no set guidelines for what makes a player "Hall worthy". It is a subjective process but still we can look to the candidates already elected for a blueprint of what is necessary for induction. Generally, players earn a spot in the Hall of Fame either by performing at an incredible level of play for at least five years (a peak candidate) or by having a sustained level of All-Star caliber play for many, many years (a career candidate).

An example of a peak candidate would be Sandy Koufax, who in a six-year span went 129-47 or Ralph Kiner, who led the league in home runs for seven consecutive seasons. Those players did not enjoy long careers, but performed at an elite level to compensate for their lack of counting numbers, like 300 wins or 500 home runs.

An example of a career candidate would be Don Sutton, who won 20 games only once in his career but pitched for 23 years and amassed 324 wins. An example of a career hitter would be Lou Brock, who played 19 seasons and posted 3,023 hits.

Jim Rice is neither a worthy peak nor career pick for the Hall of Fame.

If Jim Rice was in the Hall of Fame, among left fielders, he would have the seventh-best batting average, the eight-best hit total, the sixth-most home runs, the seventh-best RBI total, the fifth-highest average, the ninth-best on-base percentage and the seventh-highest slugging percentage. Since this would be a group of 10 players, Jim Rice would be in the bottom of the group in these seven important categories.

There's not one thing Jim Rice did in his career which would place him in the top half of left fielders in the Hall of Fame. Jim Rice is not a career candidate for the Hall of Fame.

Did Jim Rice have any achievements beyond the stats mentioned above that would help his Hall of Fame case?

In 1978, Jim Rice won the Most Valuable Player Award after becoming the first player in over 30 years to accumulate over 400 total bases in a season. Jim Rice led the American League with a .600 slugging percentage and a .970 OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage added together).

But Jim Rice, as he had throughout his career, enjoyed a tremendous boost from playing his home games in Fenway Park. Here are the home/road splits for Jim Rice in 1978:

Home - 335 AB 69 R 121 H 28 HR 75 RBI .361 BA .416 OBP .690 SLG 1.106 OPS
Away - 342 AB 52 R 92 H 18 HR 64 RBI .269 BA .325 OBP .512 SLG .837 OPS

What if there was a way to adjust Jim Rice's totals based on his ballpark and the run-scoring environment of his era? This way we could have a better comparison for Jim Rice versus the other Hall of Fame left fielders.

Baseball-reference.com has done this. They have calculated a statistic called OPS+, which is "Essentially OPS normalized to the league. Think of it as a rate above the league average expressed as a percentage."

In 1978, Jim Rice led the American League with a 154 OPS+. Here are the top 10 seasons of OPS+ for Jim Rice:

158, 154, 148, 141, 137, 131, 128, 123, 123, 121.

That's very impressive. In Jim Rice's 10th-best season, he was still 21% better than a league-average player. How does that compare to our group of Hall of Fame left fielders?

Brock 146, 128, 124, 123, 119, 115, 114, 112, 111, 109
Kiner 184, 184, 173, 156, 146, 140, 132, 121, 117, 116
Medwick 180, 156, 151, 142, 140, 132, 131, 128, 123, 119
Musial 200, 183, 182, 180, 176, 175, 172, 169, 167, 166
Simmons 176, 176, 171, 159, 149, 145, 142, 136, 130, 129
Stargell 187, 187, 168, 164, 164, 163, 158, 147, 144, 139
B.Williams 170, 157, 147, 147, 139, 136, 130, 130, 127
122
T. Williams 235, 233, 217, 215, 205, 201, 192, 189, 189, 178
Yaz 195, 178, 171, 156, 148, 141, 139, 137, 126, 124

Eight of the nine Hall of Fame left fielders had better seasons than the one posted by Jim Rice in his big 1978 season. Even if we take out Stan Musial and Ted Williams, the other six players posted 18 seasons better than Jim Rice and his 1978 campaign.

Jim Rice simply did not enjoy the peak that other Hall of Fame left fielders produced. And this is true if you look at Jim Rice and his best one, three, five or 10 seasons.

People who argue for Jim Rice to be inducted in the Hall of Fame will trot out the phrase, "most feared hitter". Whenever the numbers won't make the case for an individual, their supporters like to mention things that cannot be proven false. They like to toss around platitudes and hope that no one notices that their case lacks substance.

Let's try to quantify what makes a "feared slugger".

Between 1975 and 1986, Jim Rice was in the top 10 in the AL in slugging eight times out of 12 seasons, including two first-place and three second-place finishes. Again, very impressive.

But does that put Jim Rice above George Brett, who had seven top 10 finishes, including three first-place finishes? Fred Lynn led the league in slugging twice in that time frame. Don Mattingly had a first-place finish, two seconds and a seventh. Reggie Jackson, despite not being his prime seasons, had six top 10 seasons, including a first, second and third.

In the National League, Mike Schmidt had 11 top-10 finishes, including four first-place finishes, two seconds and two thirds. Dave Parker had seven top-10 finishes, including two first-place showings and a second. George Foster had six top-10 finishes, including a first, second and three third-place showings. Dale Murphy had two first-place finishes.

So, even cherry-picking the best seasons in the career of Jim Rice, we still find him just among the best in the game, not clearly the best. There are some Hall of Famers in this group, like Mike Schmidt, George Brett and Reggie Jackson. And there are just as many non-Hall performers, like Foster, Lynn, Mattingly, Murphy and Parker.

Jim Rice is closer to the non Hall of Fame members on this list in overall career marks than he is to Brett, Jackson and Schmidt. Both Jackson and Schmidt topped 500 career home runs, while Jim Rice had less than 400. And George Brett had 3,154 hits while being a Gold Glove at third base, a much tougher defensive position.

Finally, if one supports Jim Rice for the Hall of Fame, they have to support any player who plays the same position and puts up similar or better numbers, right? So once Jim Rice makes it, make sure we clear the way for Juan Gonzalez.

Gonzalez was more of a slugger than "feared slugger" Jim Rice. Does that make the two-time MVP a Hall of Fame player?

Here are the respective 10-best OPS+ for each:

Jim Rice

158, 154, 148, 141, 137, 131, 128, 123, 123, 121

Juan Gonzalez

169, 149, 148, 145, 141, 133, 131, 130, 122, 121

That looks pretty even, with probably a slight edge to Gonzalez on the best season. Do you really want to see Juan Gonzalez in the Hall of Fame? Because that's what you are saying with a vote for Jim Rice.

Jim Rice was one of the best players in the game from 1975-79. But he did not remain an elite player for a long enough time to reach the milestones that normally merit induction into the Hall of Fame. Also, the peak that Jim Rice enjoyed was not as impressive as other left fielders already enshrined in the Hall of Fame. And finally, Jim Rice was a one-dimensional slugger who enjoyed an extreme home field advantage. Fenway Park turned Jim Rice into a lifetime .546 slugger. In neutral road parks, Jim Rice posted just a .459 slugging mark. And that's not good enough for the Hall of Fame.