Why the Democrats Will Survive (and Possibly Thrive) in the 2010 Mid-term Elections

In 2010, it's all up for grabs. After two years of the Democrats and Republicans playing tug-of-war over the political direction of the country, the voters will have their say. If you listen only to this summer's collection of TV talking heads, then you get the impression that the results of the upcoming mid-term election is a given; Democrats will lose control of Congress, either in the House, the Senate, or both. But I advise that you hold your tears (whether they are tears of joy or agony) for just a moment.

This year's election will not be driven by the usual party politics of the past. Just as the nation surprised itself by electing a man as President in 2008 who did not fit any past model of a typical candidate, expect the surprises to continue in 2010. Today's voter is independent. Yes, most eligible voters still self-identify during their voter registration as either Democrat or Republican. However, that is just a technicality. At heart, all voters are now Independents. Party loyalty is increasingly inconsequential. Just as more people are willing to switch churches, evening resorting to virtual churches when a particular religious organization does not meet their needs, so will they change their voting affiliations and patterns.

In the historic election of 2008, the voter mantra was - We want change! And they got it, giving President Barack Obama an overwhelming, clear victory. However, those votes were not votes of personal dedication. Those shocked by the recent slide in the President's job approval ratings should not be. America's voters today want what they want when they want it and will vote for whoever will give it to them. Therefore, the 2010 election victories will go to the candidates, and subsequently, the political parties, that can respond best to the current voter mantra.

So, what is the 2010 voter mantra? We want to feel the change! So far, many Americans have not felt the impact of all the work being done in Washington. Right now, it is just part of a political exercise, part of the national database of flowing information at the bottom of the TV screen and RSS feeds that appear on their computers. Nothing seems to have changed in their lives or the lives of people they intimately know.

President Obama and the Congressional Democrats have a strong (and growing) list of solid accomplishments which they can present to the American public as evidence that change has indeed come to America. They have written proof that they are speedily delivering on their promises. For the purely intellectual voters, this will be enough information to cast their votes on, either pro or con. Tea Party folks will vote for the most conservative candidate that they can find, as long as they promise to continue the Party of No routine that entangles the Republicans. Liberals and progressives will play defense at the voting booth and vote for the candidate with a D next to their name. In fact, recent polls shows that general preferences for either a generic Democratic or Republican are almost equal. But, unlike a sports game, our political competitions do not end in ties.

The tie breaker, so to speak, with be the candidate/political party that makes the voters empathize with their point of view. The Party of No will be relying on fostering negative emotions such as fear of the future and/or disappointment in the recent past. Polls show evidence of angst that they can easily be exploited and converted to election night gains in November. However, this competition for the emotional high ground will prove easier for Democrats to win than even many Democrats now realize. There are three factors working in their favor that should at least limit election losses and, at best, will lead to a gain or two.

First, the American culture is still mostly comprised of optimists. Some polls may show that many feel the country is going vaguely in the wrong direction, but they know that today is better than yesterday. No one would trade today's somewhat meager employment gains for last year's monthly job losses of 700,000. And no one would trade today's fears of deficit spending for yesterday's realization the nation's economy was on brink of total disaster and possible Second Great Depression.

Recessions are harsh, but they end. Soon, expect to hear more positive news about the stock market trends, corporate earnings, increases in company hiring, and reduction in jobless claims. When the good news begin to dominate news coverage, people will feel richer and less vunerable. The Democrats just have to agree with the public on this point

Second, President Obama's approval rating will be higher. Mid-term election voting in the past has often followed presidential approval. The more popular a president is, the more likely voters will vote for those in his party. President Obama has proven that he is a tireless, effective campaigner. He can rally a crowd and does not have to worry about

getting news coverage of his efforts. Even after all of the repeated Republican negativity about the Obama Administration and the Congressional Democrats, the public still is clear about the fact that the blame for current problems lies with the past Republican Administration.

Soon the depressing 24-hour Gulf Oil Cam will be history and the overall visuals surrounding the President will improve. And, as the election nears, expect the President to go back into full- tilt campaign mode. Ask the defeated Republican establishment how difficult it was for them to combat then- Senator Obama when he toured the country and the media making his case for victory. Now, he will be able to tout the effectiveness of the Democrats to his repertoire.

Democratics, at least the smart ones, will be flooding the airways and internet with happy, upbeat campaign videos about the future. The political parties will launch their most popular stars onto the campaign trail. Sarah Palin is popular, but in polling, President Obama could beat her today, and First Lady Michelle Obama could probably beat them both

Any voters who appreciate the benefits that ultimately follow national healthcare reform, financial industry reform, stimulus spending, and extension of unemployment benefits will be hard-pressed to vote Republican this time around.

Third, timing is everything. Unfortunately, the country has a notoriously short attention span. If you want to make a point that will drive action, it does not necessarily pay to make your case too early. Some Democrats have complained that the party leadership has waited too long to make its case. However, even in long-distance running, there is a disadvantage in peaking too soon. Making the case close to the actual election may encourage more voters to vote to continue the course.

The 2010 mid-term elections will be for the Democrats to lose. And, it will be theirs to win, even in the face of history which dictates that seats should be lost. They have accomplished more in the past 18 months that many administrations and Congresses have accomplished in many years. However, this is will be one of those times when it pays to state the obvious - over and over again, if necessary, until people see, and feel, their point.

Unless Republicans can make a cohesive argument to the contrary, as Newt Gingrich did during the early Clinton Administration years, most free-floating voters will think Democrat first in the voting booth. . The Democrats have indeed given the country change it can believe in. The question in November 2010 will be do they have the courage to continue believing.