Why No NFL Team Will Go Undefeated in 2007

When the last undefeated team finally gets that first loss of the year the members of the 1972 Miami Dolphins celebrate. And why shouldn't they, they are after all the last team to go undefeated in the N.F.L.

Every year there is talk of a team making a run at that illustrious record. Whether it's the Colts of last year or the Patriots of this year everyone on the sports TV networks or the callers to the radio shows are talking as if this is the year, the year that we finally get another undefeated team. But I am here to tell you that it isn't going to happen this year. And here is why.

Since the beginning of the N.F.L. Championship in 1933 there have been three undefeated teams. The 1972 Miami Dolphins, the 1942 Chicago Bears and the 1934 Chicago Bears all went undefeated through the regular season. The two Bears teams went on to lose the championship games 30-13 to the Giants in 1934 and 14 to 6 to the Redskins in 1942. The Dolphins on the other hand ran roughshod through the playoffs on the way to becoming Super Bowl VII Champions 14 to 7 over the Redskins. Thinking about this statistically you have to look at the odds of this happening. In the last seventy three seasons it has only happened three times. Since the institution of the Super Bowl, thirty one years ago it has happened once. And that was with a fourteen game schedule (the Bears did it 11-0 in 1942, and 13-0 in 1934), not the sixteen game schedule that teams play today.

Not taking anything away from what the Dolphins did in 1972 but we don't see that type of schedule today. I'm not talking about the fact that there are two additional games. I am talking about the fact that the Dolphins only played two teams in the regular season that finished with a record above .500 (the Chiefs 8-6 and the Giants 8-6). Also in 1972 fifteen teams averaged at least 21 points a game, and the Dolphins played only 5 of them. In fact they faced three teams that didn't even average two touchdowns a game. Looking at today's overwhelming offenses it's a surprise that only three teams in the last five years have averaged less then fourteen points a game (2002 Texans, 2006 Raiders and 2006 Buccaneers).

Now looking at the last remaining undefeated teams of 2007 (as of 10/01), I am going to explain why each of them will not finish 16-0. The first of these, which I believe is the least likely to go undefeated, is the Green Bay Packers. The first reason why they will lose games this year is because their conference has greatly improved. The Lions offense is playing much better as is the Minnesota defense. The Bears are not the 1-3 team that they are showing right now. The second reason why the Packers will lose this year has to do with their road schedule, two games in particular. They are at Kansas City, who is 31-9 at home over the last five years, and they are at Denver who is 29-11 at home over that same period of time. The final reason why the Packers are not going to challenge the Dolphins of '72 is because they just can't run the ball. They are averaging just 54.2 yards a game through the first four games. With a banged up rookie Brandon Jackson and Vernand Morency, who carried the ball only 91 times last year, they don't have the depth. This in turn puts pressure on Brett Farve to make things happen, and we have seen what that leads to over the last couple of years.

Another team that hasn't seen the loss column through the first four weeks is the Dallas Cowboys. Their biggest problem this year will be inter-division games. The N.F.C. East isn't going to be an easy division to win. The Redskins are greatly improved, you never know which Giant team will show up and the Eagles have been up and down so far this year. The Cowboys also have to play the Patriots in week 6, the Packers in week 13 and at the Panthers in week 16. Other than the shootout they got into with the Giants in week 1 the Cowboys have played some pretty "vanilla" offenses in the Dolphins, the Bears and the Rams.

The third undefeated team to fall before the playoffs will be the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts offense is running on all cylinders up to this point in the season and the defense looks pretty good but "what if". We saw what happened when Bob Sanders went down last season. The whole defense fell apart. They couldn't stop a middle school team rushing attack. Looking at their schedule two of the three big tests for the Colts will be at home in the dome at least. Back to back slugfests against the Patriots and then the Chargers in weeks 9 and 10. We know that the Colts finally got the "monkey" off their back by beating New England last year, but this is a different Patriots team with receivers you have actually heard of. The Chargers are just waiting to explode on someone, soon, probably before week 10 but stranger things have happened. The last big test for them will be at Baltimore. Since the 2000 the Ravens are 44-14 at home and their defense is only giving up an average of 15 points a game in those games.

The last team to get the loss this year will probably be the New England Patriots. This is a much improved team; they had a couple major pick ups in the off-season. But will these guys be able to gel; will the offense and defense be cohesive for the whole year? One of the keys for the Patriots this year, as it has in the past, is will they stay healthy. I don't think that the team will fall apart, but it will definitely create a speed bump on their road to the Super Bowl. The three big road tests for the Patriots are in week 6 at Dallas, Week 9 at Indianapolis and week 13 at Baltimore (see paragraph above). The other ones are tough in the sense that the Cowboys are improved from the team that lost in the playoffs last year, and the Colts have won 24 of the last 26 games in Indianapolis.

Week 4 is almost over and we still have four teams that have dreams of upsetting the alumni from that storied 1972 Dolphins team. With all the reasons why I explained they won't go undefeated I definitely won't be upset to see a team approach that record. This is one of beauties of that record, every year we talk about this being the year that "our" team will break the record, and go down in history as being one of the greatest ever.