Why the Russians Invaded at the Dawn of the Beijing Olympics

With the world otherwise distracted by Olympic hysteria, Eastern European geopolitics took a nasty turn for the worse the evening of August 8th. It was then that Russian and Georgian forces engaged each other over the disputed breakaway region of South Ossetia. Before this incident few could have accurately placed Georgia on a map, let alone explained the rationale behind a Russian invasion of a former Soviet bloc nation - particularly now as the world focuses its attention on the peace and cooperation engendered by the Olympic spirit. It begs the question: why now and why, of all places, Georgia?

What's at Stake

Georgia is the conduit through which a US-backed natural gas pipeline - from Azerbaijan to Turkey - runs. American investment, economic development, and military training have benefited Georgia immensely over the last several years, helping it to outpace many of its former Soviet bloc neighbors.

The US-led "War on Terror" has likewise played into Georgia's hands as it seeks American support to help wrangle in the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The US named Georgia as a major strategic ally within East Asia - much to Russia's chagrin.

NATO has also approached Georgia, regarding its potential membership, as it seeks to push further east into former Soviet-controlled sectors. This invitation, coupled with what is perceived as US meddling in the region, prompted Russia to install its own peacekeepers in and around Georgia's breakaway regions in 2006.

A Nation Divided

Although Georgia claimed its independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991, it did so in the knowledge that its territorial integrity was speculate. Two key regions within the state - those of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, both of which have close ethnic ties to the Russian North Caucasus - likewise proclaimed their independence in 1991, fracturing the Georgian landscape, and, over time, inviting Russian interference.

Georgia has, until recently, been unable to rein these two regions in either militarily or diplomatically. US investment in Georgia over the last several years has, however, bolstered the Saakashvili government and its prospects for restoring territorial integrity.

Business as Usual for the Russians

Peacekeepers became shock troops the morning of 8 August, 2008 as Russia determined it in its national and geopolitical interest to cement the South Ossetian secession. As the conflict progresses - Russian troops currently occupying more than half of the Georgian Republic - Abkhazia's secession may not be far behind.

One can hardly ignore Russia's economic incentive for invading Georgia now. Since its independence Georgia has relied less and less on Russian energy or capital, especially since the establishment of the pipeline. Should Georgia choose to accede to NATO, Russia would be losing not only money and resources but also regional control. The last thing Prime Minister Putin or President Medvedev want is greater Western influence in the former Eastern Bloc; however, they may well have hastened this eventuality through their invasion of Georgia.

The Russian Federation has never been very geopolitically forward-thinking when it comes to the long-term consequences of its military misadventures (i.e. Afghanistan, the former DRC, et al), and it will likely find itself in a far worse diplomatic position than it started out with when this is all said and done. Aside from souring relations with NATO, the US, and the EU through over-escalation, whatever remains of the Georgian Republic in the days to come will undoubtedly jump at the chance to sign with NATO. The EU will also very likely accelerate its timetable for Georgia's accession.

Sources

Background Note: Georgia. US State Department. http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5253.htm February 2008.

Rossi, M. L. What Every American Should Know About the Rest of the World. Plume Publishing. 2003.

Timeline: Georgia. BBC News. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/country_profiles/1102575.stm 08 August, 2008.