Why Ryan Howard Faces an Uphill Battle to Cooperstown

Ryan Howard had a tremendous year in 2006. He hit 58 HR's, had 149 RBI's, scored 104 Runs, while walking 108 times. His batting average was .313, his OBP was .425, and his SLG was .659. It was such a great year that Howard won the National League MVP award for 2006.

By any standards it was a year that is clearly Hall of Fame caliber. Indeed, there are many players in the Hall of Fame who have never had such a productive year. Clearly, on the basis of his 2006 season, Ryan Howard is a Hall of Fame type player. Yet there is one statistic of Ryan Howard's that will work against him for the rest of his career and likely keep him out of the Hall of Fame. What is that stat? His Age.

Ryan Howard was 26 years old this baseball season. It was his first full year playing in the Major Leagues. The vast majority of Hall of Famers have their first full season in the majors at around age 22. So Ryan Howard is already four years behind the curve of the typical Hall of Famer. Those are four years he can never get back. Let's take a closer statistical look at those four lost years, to illustrate just how much they are going to hurt Howard's chances of making the Hall.

Based upon his brilliant 2006 season, we can presume that if Ryan Howard had played in the majors for the previous four seasons he would have put up decent numbers. Let's say he would have averaged 30 HR's, 100 RBI's and 85 Runs scored. Over four years that would total 120 HR's, 400 RBI's and 340 Runs scored.

Howard did play briefly as a 24 year old, and half a season as a 25 year old, compiling a total of 27 HR's, 68 RBI's and 57 Runs scored. So if we subract what he did accomplish from what he might have done, we end up with 93 HR's, 332 RBI's and 283 Runs scored. I think that's a fair estimate of what Howard might have produced had his major league career gotten started at the age that the vast majority of Hall of Famers start their careers.

Ryan Howard will likely be chasing those numbers for the rest of his career in terms of getting into the Hall of Fame.

Obviously, if Howard can reproduce what he did this year for the next 9 years, he's going to make the Hall of Fame. He hit 58 HR's, so he would end up with over 500 HR's and that would get him in. But the odds are heavily against him being able to do that. Do you know how many players have averaged 50 HR's a year for for their career? Zero. Howard would be the first. Let's take a more realistic view of what he might accomplish.

Let's say Howard averages 40 HR's for the next 9 years, plus 125 RBI's and 100 Runs scored. A total of 360 HR's, 1125 RBI's and 900 Runs. If we add those numbers to what he has already accomplished we end up with 442 HR's, 1342 RBI's and 1061 Runs scored. Excellent numbers to be sure, but probably not enough to get him into the Hall of Fame.

If we add in the numbers he might have accomplished had his career gotten started at the typical age for Hall of Famers, we end up with 535 HR's, 1674 RBI's and 1344 Runs scored. Numbers that would make him a virtual lock for the Hall of Fame.

Due to the fact that Ryan Howard's major league career did not get fully started until he was 26 years old, Howard will likely not be able to make it into the Hall of Fame. In order to make it into the Hall, he is going to have to be better over the next decade than just about any player who ever played the game. And that is assuming he suffers no injuries that could curtail his production, or even cause him to miss playing time. That he will not have any type of off the field problems that would also curtail his production or cause missed playing time. And he will most likely need to continue to play in a bandbox park for the rest of his career.

Add all these factors up, and Ryan Howard is going to have a very difficult time making it into the Hall of Fame. He could still do it, and I'll be rooting for him because he's a decided underdog to ever make it, but the fact that Howard's career got going at such a late age will probably prevent him from ever making the Hall of Fame.