Why You Shouldn't Worry so Much About the Swine Flu

Swine flu seems to be everywhere these days: in addition to Mexico and the United States, confirmed cases of H1N1 (the medical label for swine flu) have now been reported in Canada, Britain, China and eleven other countries. Fatalities have spread from Mexico to the US. Everywhere you look, from television to the internet to newspapers, reports and articles abound advising people to take caution or documenting the latest statistics on this "pandemic." The media is in an absolute frenzy, and as a result, people are panicking.

Much of this fear is, however, unfounded. Much like recent bird flu scares, it is highly unlikely that this particular strain of influenza will turn into the much-hyped massive flu pandemic that experts have been predicting for years now. Why? Well, let's take a look at the details of H1N1 so we can see exactly why it's not the world-ending flu strain the media is making it out to be.

As of today, May 2nd, the WHO reports a total of 658 cases of H1N1 infection, including a total of 17 deaths. Considering that the first symptoms of swine flu began to show up in Mexico in early March, the death toll from H1N1 is well below epidemic proportions, despite the fact that the media continues to call this a "pandemic." According to the Centers for Disease Control, the epidemic threshold for a disease is 7.8% of all deaths, and H1N1 clearly doesn't even come close.

In Mexico alone, the seeming epicenter of this disease, there have been 16 confirmed deaths since H1N1-specific flu symptoms were first recognized, approximately two months ago. Even here, where the disease seems to have originated and in a country with substandard healthcare, H1N1 hasn't come close to epidemic proportions even after it's had two full months to spread. Given that the definition of a pandemic is an epidemic on multiple continents, "pandemic" is an inaccurate label for a disease that is not an epidemic even in the country that it has hit the hardest. Further, a flu strain that has had this much time to spread but done this little damage, even in its location of origin, is unlikely to pose a serious threat to world health.

In fact, far more dangerous than swine flu at this point is the regular influenza that spreads each winter. In a typical flu season, worldwide deaths range anywhere from 250,000 to 500,000, according to the WHO. In the most recent data from the CDC, pneumonia and influenza reached the epidemic threshold in the US for the week of April 5-11, though it failed to do so in the previous week. It is not unusual for the regular flu to reach the epidemic threshold for multiple weeks in a year, however. What does this mean for you? Really, it means that you should be taking the same precautions against flu infection that you should be taking every year around this time. No more, no less.

That being said, many people don't take sufficient precautions against the flu, and the current swine flu scare is a good reminder that it's important to do so, even if not solely for the sake of H1N1. Frequent hand-washing is one of the best ways to prevent infection, and you can find more detailed advice here. We can never be sure when the next super-flu will really come, so it really is best to take these precautions at all times, regardless of whether there are any dangerous new strains. However, as you can see from the analysis above, H1N1 is not the next super-flu, so now would be a good time to stop worrying so much.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, "Flu Activity & Surveillance." www.cdc.gov

Drew Curtis, "Why we're not all going to die from Mexican Flu." www.fark.com

Drew Curtis, "Why Swine Flue Isn't Going To Kill Us All, Part II." www.fark.com

Eric Carvin, "Q's without A's: 6 mysteries about swine flu." www.google.com/hostednews

Sharie Orr, "Everyone Needs to Settle Down About the Swine Flu Panic-I mean, Pandemic." www.betterlifetips.com

World Health Organization, "Influenza A(HwNw) - update 10." www.who.int

World Health Organization, "Influenza (Seasonal)." www.who.int