Why Tim Raines Should Be Selected for the Hall of Fame

There are things about which reasonable people can disagree. I think the Beatles are the top rock-and-roll band of all time, the best cola beverage is Coke and the hottest celebrity born in 1970 is Mariah Carey. You could pick the Stones, Pepsi and Uma Thurman and be just as right as me.

But one thing not up for debate among reasonable people is the worthiness of Tim Raines for the Hall of Fame.

Last year, I wrote an article making the case against Jim Rice for the Hall of Fame. Today, I want to compare Jim Rice to Tim Raines, who becomes eligible for the Hall of Fame this year for the first time and who should be a slam dunk. But I predict that Tim Raines will come nowhere close to the 75% vote needed, while Jim Rice might very well pass that threshold.

Let's compare Tim Raines and Jim Rice by OPS+, which takes into account ballpark and run-scoring environment and compare the two players:

Tim Raines - 153, 151, 149, 146, 138, 138, 135, 132, 129, 122
Jim Rice - 158, 154, 148, 141, 137, 131, 128, 123, 123, 121

Tim Raines and Jim Rice are pretty even here, with probably a very slight edge to Jim Rice for his higher top two seasons. So, why do I think that Tim Raines should be a first-ballot choice for the Hall of Fame, while Jim Rice should not get in?

The two most important offensive statistics are on-base percentage and slugging percentage, which are represented in OPS. However, the two stats are not created equal, as they have different denominators. The perfect ballplayer, one who hits a home run every time up, would have a 1.000 on-base percentage and a 4.000 slugging percentage. Historically, it's easier to post a higher slugging percentage than on-base percentage. Last year in the National League, The leader in slugging had a .634 mark while .480 was the top on-base percentage.

Furthermore, studies have shown that on-base percentage is twice as important as slugging percentage when it comes to scoring runs.

Jim Rice derives a great amount of his offensive value from slugging percentage. In his MVP season of 1978, Jim Rice had a .970 OPS. That total was derived mostly from a .600 slugging mark.

Meanwhile, in Tim Raines' best season, he posted a 955 OPS in 1987. That was achieved with a .429 on-base percentage. If we calculate OPS as on-base percentage X 2 + slugging percentage, we get Jim Rice in 1978 with (370 X 2) + 600 = 1340. Tim Raines would be (429 X 2) + 526 = 1384. Perhaps Tim Raines had the better peak, after all.

Tim Raines posted an on-base percentage over .350 in 15 consecutive seasons, including four times in which he topped the .400 mark. Meanwhile, Jim Rice had only seven seasons in his career in which he topped the .350 mark, with his personal best coming in 1987 with his .384 mark. Tim Raines bettered that mark seven times in his career.

OK, so you accept that Tim Raines was better than Jim Rice in getting on base. But Jim Rice had a significant edge in slugging percentage, which is what he was paid to do. After all, he was the "most feared slugger" of his time. But Jim Rice was a slugger because of Fenway Park. In neutral road parks, the feared slugger posted a .459 slugging mark. Meanwhile, speedy leadoff man Tim Raines had a lifetime .425 slugging mark. And as for "most feared" opposing hurlers intentionally walked Jim Rice 77 times in his career. But Tim Raines received 148 free passes.

Also, OPS only takes into account what the players did batting. There's more to the game than batting and Tim Raines extends his lead over Jim Rice when you include defense and baserunning.

Tim Raines played left field because in his prime, the Expos had a Gold Glove Award winner in Andre Dawson playing center field. In 1984, Tim Raines did play the entire season in center. Can you imagine Jim Rice patrolling center field? That's not a pretty image. Jim Rice played left because the Red Sox already had DH filled with older players like Carl Yastrzemski and Don Baylor.

And it's only worse when you consider base running. Tim Raines led the National League four straight years in stolen bases. With 808 lifetime steals, Tim Raines has the fifth highest mark in Major League history. Equally impressive, Tim Raines was successful on 84% of his lifetime steals. Meanwhile, Jim Rice had 58 career steals and just a 63% success rate. Plus, Jim Rice hit into 316 double plays, the sixth highest mark of all time. Tim Raines had just 144 GDPs, despite over 650 more at-bats.

Throughout his career, Tim Raines accomplished just about everything a player could in the game. From 1981-1987, he was neck and neck with Mike Schmidt for best ballplayer in the National League. He was among the leaders in average, on-base percentage, runs, runs created, stolen bases and offensive winning percentage. Later in his career, he was a key cog in the 1993 White Sox playoff team and he was a contributor on two Yankees teams that won the World Series. He was a productive player through his age 41 season, in which he was still able to post a .413 on-base percentage.

Standing just 5'8, Tim Raines was one of the most complete ball players of all time. He ranks with Rickey Henderson as the best leadoff man in history. Tim Raines was a star with the bat, on the bases and in the field and deserves to be elected to the Hall of Fame.