Will Adrian Gonzalez Stay in San Diego with the Padres?

The San Diego Padres have a real problem with their first baseman, Adrian Gonzalez. It is currently a problem that many teams would wish to have, but it is about to turn very ugly. As it stands right now, the Padres have one of the lowest paid, heavy hitting first baseman in recent history. The problem with this is that his contract is almost up. It is almost impossible for the team to keep him after the 2011 season. There are several things that need to happen in order for Adrian to stay in San Diego. None of those factors are going to be met in the foreseeable future. This is where the problems begin for the Friars.

The stage has been set for the Padres fans to demand that Adrian Gonzalez stays. With last season's Jake Peavy trade, Adrian is now the marquee player for the team. This is more punishment that has been mete out by former General Manager, Kevin Towers. The Peavy deal was really a matter of revenge against the Padres. There is really no other reason for it. Jake Peavy is arguably one of the best pitchers in the game. He is also one of the rare Padres creations. He was the glory boy for a team that revolves around pitching. Kevin Towers knew he was going to be fired and the animosity began to build. It is this animosity that drove "KT" to basically give Peavy away to the White Sox. This same deal had been denied several times prior to Towers' pending job loss, but once he knew he was getting his walking papers, he agreed to a deal for less talent in return. He cited Peavy's expensive contract, but the new owner had already stated that it was not a problem since it was back loaded and the payroll would rise to fit it in time. It was possible to keep Peavy with the Padres for his entire career, at least that is how it was working out. This can be nothing but a parting shot from a sour GM. With that trade, the only household name left on the team was Adrian. Had the Peavy trade not occurred, fans would not be so against the Adrian trade and the deal would have been worked out this last off season. With any talks involving Gonzalez being under very strict scrutiny, it is difficult for the Padres to get a stellar deal. Now that the fans feel that Adrian is the only marquee player left on the team, they do not want to see him go. The only way a deal for Gonzalez could get fan approval is for it to be so lopsided in favor of the friars that no team would ever agree to it.

Another problem with Adrian Gonzalez is that he is very talented. In baseball, talent means huge money. This is not normally a problem, but for a dollar store team like the Padres that rely on players taking the "So Cal discount" to get that talent, Adrian is not feasible. According to Gonzalez's agent, the Padres have approached him about a contract extension, but they are not seriously considering it. When confronted about a starting point for the negotiations, John Boggs, Adrian's Agent, mentioned Mark Teixeira's 8 year, $180M contract with the Yankees. It is at this point that the Padres don't even try to negotiate, but just walk away. This type of discussions can only mean that the Friar's are no where even remotely close to that sum. For Gonzalez to stay, he would have to accept a huge San Diego discount and play for the peanuts he is making now. The Friars might be able to offer up to $9M a year for his contract, but that is paltry compared to what the slugger could get from the Red Sox, his biggest suitor, or what the Yankees will pay to keep him away from the Red Sox.

The biggest obstacle to Adrian Gonzalez staying with the San Diego Padres is the park and payroll that the team has to deal with. Petco is a pitcher's park that fits this pitcher's team on a pitcher's payroll. Adrian is a hitter and the biggest proponent for bringing in the walls at Petco. This will likely be part of any deal that will be made with the slugger. If Adrian were to take a discount at all, the walls would have to come in. He would almost assuredly demand that in his contract. If the Padres were to bring the walls in, they would be destroying any chance of the post season for the next twenty years. The Padres do not have the money to build a hitter's team based around Adrian Gonzalez, or any other hitter in the game for that matter. Unless the Steinbrenners were to shrug off the Yankees and move to So Cal to buy the Friars, the Padres can not bring the walls in. They would loose more home games than what they could win. When the Padres revolved around strong pitching and left the walls out, they were division champs. Now that they are trying to get a couple big bats and they brought the walls in a couple feet, they have a hard time breaking .500 in a season. The depth of Petco is the strength of the Padres. On the average, pitchers are cheaper than hitters. Even if you pay the same money for them, you have five pitchers, only three really high dollar ones, versus eight or more power hitters. With the Padres trying to stay between $40-50M a year in salary, a strong hitting team is out of the question.

There are many things keeping Adrian Gonzalez from staying with the Padres. I am just like many of the fans and would love to see him stay in So Cal, but it just will not work. The Padres can not keep him. This means they need to get the most they can for him right now. This off season, there were several offers from the Red Sox that should have occurred. There have been several suitors out there that are willing to part with a lot of young talent for Gonzalez. When it comes closer to the trade deadline this year, I see several teams that are on the cusp of the postseason or want a World Series ring that will give up their first born and a kidney to have the talented Adrian in the lineup. In a hitter's park, he could be lethal and put up some record numbers. If the Friar's wait to long though, they may end up with just a couple draft picks when he walks away after 2011. They need to just own up to the facts and get more than what he is worth, especially in the form of pitching. A trade of Adrian for Peavy could be just what the doctor ordered for the San Diego Padres.

Sources:

Get Used to it: Gonzalez is a Wanted Man