Will Anybody Hit 600 Homeruns in Major League Baseball Again?

Alex Rodriguez finally launched homerun number 600 but because of his steroid use the celebration was not as big as it was once thought it would be. The 600 club has been watered down lately because of the increasingly number of players that have joined the club. In the last 8 years the 600 homerun club has gone from three to seven. However, the homeruns have now slowed down in 2010. Will anybody ever hit 600 homeruns again?

Naturally the player with the best shot is also the best baseball player playing today, Albert Pujols. Pujols is still relatively young, 30, and has already notched 393 homeruns. Pujols has hit 30 homeruns or more every year in his career but he's never been a 50 homerun hitter. Hank Aaron had a similar no 50-homerun career though and he got all the way up to 755. It took Aaron 23 seasons but to get to 600 it could only take 17 seasons.

The next best shot at 600 homerun is probably Manny Ramirez. Manny is now 38 years old so 600 could be a stretch but he sits just 47 homeruns shy. Injuries have slowed Manny down significantly the last two years but two healthy seasons could get him into the 600 homerun club.

After Pujols and Ramirez there are not many candidates to hit 600 homeruns remaining. Back in his Montreal days Vladimir Guerrero looked like a guy that could reach 600 homeruns but many baseball experts thought he was done last season. Vlad has proved them wrong this year but is still only on pace for 33 homeruns. At 33 homeruns a season Guerrero would have to play five more seasons and it is unlikely he would keep up that pace until he is 40.

After A-Rod, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez the current player with the most homeruns is Chipper Jones. With only 435 homeruns and a long list of injuries Chipper has no shot at 600 homeruns. Next is Guerrero, followed by 39 year old Jason Giambi and Andruw Jones. Jones is only 33 years old and could be on pace for 600 if he was hitting 40 and 50 homeruns like a few years ago but at his current pace of about 20 homeruns this year he would need to keep up that pace for 10 more seasons.

After Jones is Pujols and then Jim Edmonds, who will probably retire at the end of the year at age 41. Paul Konerko is 34 years old with 353 homeruns. Maybe the next best shot is Adam Dunn with 344 homeruns at 30 years old. Adam Dunn hit exactly 40 homeruns four consecutive years and his average over the past 6 years is also 40. At 40 homeruns a season Dunn would need about 6 and a half years, which would only be 36 years old. The only question is can Dunn, who doesn't have as athletic a body as Pujols, stay healthy for 6 and a half more years.

Other than Pujols, Dunn is the highest player on the all-time homerun list at the age of 30. The player that is highest on the list and younger than 30 is Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera has never even hit 40 homeruns and probably won't even get halfway to 600 homeruns until 2012. Cabrera would still only be 29 years old but even with a talented player like Cabrera it's too difficult to say this guy is definitely going to hit homeruns for 13 more years. Andruw Jones is proof of that.

Even some of the most talented younger players look like unlikely 600 homerun candidates. Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Ryan Howard might seem like "younger guys" but Howard is 30, Fielder is 27 and Braun is 26. Howard has only 10 more homeruns than Cabrera and is 3 years older. Fielder and Braun have significantly less homeruns than Cabrera and are about the same age. David Wright and Hanley Ramirez are also mid-20 year olds around the same number of homeruns but neither is really a homerun hitter.

Sources:
Career Leaders & Records For Home Runs, Baseball-Reference.com