Will the Ghost of Heath Ledger Come to Haunt Robert Downey Jr?

You'll have to forgive Robert Downey Jr. if he's got that old LL Cool J song stuck in his head. The last two years have seen a surge in the veteran actor's stock, starting with his role in "Zodiac" in 2007, continuing on to "Iron Man" and "Tropic Thunder" in 2008 and likely escalating next year with high-profile projects "The Soloist" and "Sherlock Holmes", not to mention the Iron Man sequel slated for 2010. But, as LL sang, don't call it a comeback -- Downey's been around for years.

Robert Downey Jr's career originally peaked almost 15 years ago starting with his break-out role in James Toback's "The Pick-up Artist", playing pal to Mel Gibson in "Air America", getting an Oscar nomination at the age of 27 for "Chaplin" and participating in the Quentin-Tarantino-cum-Oliver-Stone mayhem of "Natural Born Killers".

While frequent stints in rehab and some jail time may have tempered that initial career surge, Downey never really disappeared from the big screen. Between "Natural Born Killers" and "Zodiac", the actor can claim over 30 film and television roles including notable parts in "Wonder Boys", "Good Night, and Good Luck", "A Scanner Darkly" and, as Calista Flockhart's recurring love interest, on "Ally McBeal".

But, while Downey's career has never been lacking per se, it's doubtful that anybody expected what has now suddenly become the pinnacle of his career. Consider that before 2008, none of his movies had ever broken the $100 million mark at the US box office.* But, with "Iron Man" and "Tropic Thunder", the actor now has two. In fact, when added together, the domestic grosses of Downey's last two films (over $400 million) come close to equaling those of his previous 56 movies combined ($600 million). A stretch of films spanning 27 years.

In an industry where one's cache is determined first and foremost by dollar signs, Robert Downey Jr. is on an ascension to a higher plane than he's ever been before. The question now is will this elevated stature also lead to renewed critical acclaim?

As mentioned, Downey has already been noticed by the Academy thanks to his transformation into silent film icon Charlie Chaplin. No easy feat for an actor yet to turn 30 considering the age to which his character progressed by the end. Downey made another dramatic transformation in 2008. And it's hard to argue that it was any less a stunning metamorphosis.

That transformation was Downey's now infamous turn as Kirk Lazarus in "Tropic Thunder" -- an Australian mega-thespian who goes beyond "black face" to become the African-American Vietnam War character, Sgt. Osiris. The initial controversy of a white actor playing a black character has now blown over to where Downey's performance ought to be judged on its merits rather than its novelty. Credit much of that to Ben Stiller's script (one of the best satires of the Hollywood film industry ever penned) which foresaw the potential hot potato nature of the casting and addressed it head on by including an authentic black character (Alpa Chino, played by Brandon T. Jackson) whose disapproving running commentary on the casting of Sgt. Osiris dogs Kirk Lazarus throughout.

Will Downey end up in Oscar contention for this portrayal? There's no question that the level of artistry displayed is nomination worthy. But there are a couple of factors working against Downey. The first is that controversy. Yes, it has all blown over, but the Academy might want to duck "condoning" such fare just in case hard feelings linger. It's best to remain neutral on this kind of thing.

Another knock against this potential nomination is the genre in which Downey's performance lives. When was the last time an actor in a broad comedy was nominated for an Oscar? Kevin Kline, maybe, for "A Fish Called Wanda"? What about before that? How about Jack Lemmon in "Some Like it Hot"? Epoch's unfold between broad comedy nominations.

Now, when was the last time an actor was nominated from an ACTION comedy? Don't think too hard. That would be never.

But if Robert Downey Jr. does make it past those first two pitfialls to land a best supporting actor nomination, there is one last hurdle he might need to clear before getting to grasp the golden statue. An ironic hurdle.

Heath Ledger.

In a decade in which race barriers came crashing down with several African-American wins, 2008 could potentially earn a footnoot in Oscar history for knocking down barriers of a different kind. The genre barrier. Just as there has never been an action comedy actor honored by the Academy, neither has been a comic book movie actor. And yet, this time around, the best supporting actor race could boil down to just these two. Downey's Lazarus and Ledger's Joker.

What makes this hurdle ironic, should it all come to this, is that Heath Ledger was a real-life budding Kirk Lazarus. A method-acting Australian phenom who could have potentially gone on to collect gold statue after gold statue. To be clear, though, in temperament, Lazarus and Ledger are not alike at all. Stiller and Downey likely had another Aussie in mind (Russell Crowe) when they pieced the character together.

But, in terms of losing one's self in "The Method", few Hollywood actors have gone deeper than Heath Ledger. By some accounts, the dark recesses to which the actor delved to achieve his Joker caused the sleeplessness which ultimately lead to his demise.

Has there ever been a coroner's report on which "method acting" could be listed as the cause of death? It would seem that Ledger may be the only bona fide case of it. But one could imagine Kirk Lazarus reaching this depth, too, as evidenced by his sheer inability to break character even after realizing the real jeopardy he and the other "Tropic Thunder" cast members were in well before anyone else.

So, if the Ledger/Downey Jr. match-up comes to pass (and I think it will) look for the Australian's tour-de-force and posthumous considerations to keep the "Tropic Thunder" actor in his seat. But also look for an appreciative glint on Downey's part. Come February, the irony of Ledger's hypothetical win won't be lost on him.

*For the record, the 1986 Rodney Dangerfield comedy "Back to School" came close to breaking $100 million with $91 million in receipts. A figure that easily goes over that mark when adjusted for inflation.

Robert Downey Jr's highest grossing films (domestic box office):

Iron Man $318 million

Tropic Thunder $110 million

Back to School $91 million

Bowfinger $66 million

Gothika $60 million

US Marshals $58 million

Natural Born Killers $50 million

Soapdish $36 million

Zodiac $33 million

Good Night, and Good Luck $31 million

Air America $31 million

Weird Science $24 milion

Only You $20 million

Wonder Boys $19 million

Johnny Be Good $18 million

Home For the Holidays $17 million