Will "Harry Potter & the Half-Blood Prince" Get a Best Picture Oscar Nomination?

When AMPAS announced that the Academy Awards would bring back nominating ten movies for Best Picture in 2010, I immediately pictured the horrific scenario of an Oscars scraping bottom and nominating unworthy movies just because the space is available...perhaps for rent. I'm still one of those to believe that there won't be ten movies worthy of a Best Picture nomination next year, unless indie and foreign films get lumped into the list. It'll have to happen, because if Hollywood wants to only honor their own, we'll be seeing nominations for films ending up as the butt of jokes for time immemorial. But we can consider the possibility of one nomination that should fit in perfectly after "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" set a standard in 2004 for the epic fantasy film in winning Best Picture and proving it as a cinematic process of covering all bases.

"Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" has a very good chance of setting a new standard as a Best Picture nominee and proving that the Oscars made a wise move in allowing films like it to get at least nominated. It'll also tell us that "Half-Blood Prince" could have still made it in without having extra Best Picture slots loaded with mediocre fare.

The reason Harry Potter is a good bet for at least a Best Picture nomination is because of Oscar's penchant for nominating films that covers all subject matter, no matter if it falls under an umbrella title of fantasy. While perhaps arguable, the Potter movies have gradually become more accessible for any age level and are managing to effectively convey the increasing complexities utilized in J.K. Rowling's books. The movies nevertheless had potentials of making big mistakes in being able to consolidate everything without making fans feel that something important was taken out. Some of those diehard fans might suggest "Half Blood Prince" the film should have included the big battle with the Death Eaters at the end originally used in the book.

For Oscar, it's a tossup whether that would have made any difference in making it an Oscar darling since the Academy has nominated dramas with hyperbolic drama before. Instead, we have a movie that managed to create a careful balance for the sake of not exhausting the potentials of drama. It also manages to convey the human condition and the profound battles against the nefarious in a way that you likely won't see in any other movie this year. Even the high-profile December-released Oscar sycophants you see so obviously vying for the big prize every year probably won't have such a compelling mix of dramatic elements.

As much as the Academy told us this year that perhaps a comedy or two might finally get nominated within those ten slots for Best Picture next December, make no mistake about Oscar: It's a good bet they'll still go gaga over a drama.
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Let's also keep in mind that Hollywood still wants to keep to their roots and nominate a major blockbuster that's either from their own town or an international production. Harry Potter is obviously British through and through, yet we all know Hollywood isn't afraid to shower the British with awards. In that regard, they've been going in the right direction since the British truly do have talent, to coin the title of a certain Susan Boyle-dominated reality show across the pond. If the young cast of Harry Potter still have room to grow into Oscar-caliber actors (well, save Emma Watson, who could probably win one now if she had the power to break out of the Hermione box), the other seasoned actors in "Half Blood Prince" give some of their best performances on screen in a while.

Michael Gambon has been nominated for a Golden Globe and an Emmy for playing Lyndon B. Johnson of all people, but never has been nominated for an Oscar despite being one of Britain's most prestigious actors for decades. Other than winning at least a number of BAFTA awards in UK, we all know the reluctance to accept him as Dumbledore after the death of Richard Harris in 2002 almost hurt his career. Now, though, he's easily become more memorable in the role and has a current general consensus saying his performance of Dumbledore's demise in "Half Blood Prince" is an Oscar-worthy performance.

If that seems like a stretch, remember that Sir Ian McKellen was nominated for a supporting actor Oscar playing Gandalf in "Fellowship of the Ring", yet strangely not for the Oscar-feted "Return of the King." And if Gambon gets an Oscar bias, then it's a better bet on Jim Broadbent to get an Oscar supporting actor nod for his superb, first-time role as Horace Slughorn. The Academy doesn't always hesitate to re-nominate previous supporting actor winners based on the one he won for "Iris" in 2002.

A first-time nomination for Alan Rickman as Severus Snape would make a lot of people happy who consider this actor to be overdue for awards in America. Should the Academy consist of mostly women, you can count on his skillfully creepy performance of Snape winning them over and perhaps garnering one of those well-noted nominations that ultimately doesn't get the win.

As we learned with "Return of the King", however, a big favorite by the Oscars doesn't have to sweep up just in acting. "King" didn't win anything in the acting categories, but swept up in every other category. For an epic fantasy film that happens to touch a nerve in its profound reach, Oscar seems, so far, afraid to honor the performances that demonstrate why it made such an impact. Instead, the accolades go to the director, screenwriter and special effects crew.

Whether that happens or not will depend on the continuing steamroller dominance of "Half Blood Prince" and the lack of any other movie capturing the public imagination before December, which is always a labyrinth of surprises. Potter fans, though, might feel that a blaze of Oscar glory for "Half Blood Prince" would take away from the truly epic considerations for "Deathly Hallows", both Parts One and Deux. With a good chance "Deathly Hallows" will be the only two films in history to come close to what "The Last Battle" might look like at the end of the Narnia Chronicles, perhaps Oscar should develop a case of nominatus interruptus.

Once the Academy decides, though, the runaway train won't stop. Then we're looking at the birth of oddball history in a sixth film from a movie series winning Best Picture of the year...