Hillary Clinton did have a ten percentage point lead in both states but as Obama has increased his momentum with his 11 consecutive state victory, that margin has clsoed considerably and some polls in those two states have the two candidates deadlocked or within the margin of error. Ohio and Texas are the two biggest remaining delegate states. In the proportional delegate Democratic primary, Obama will still gain a large amount of delegates even if he loses the Texas and/or Ohio primary.
Even though Obama may not have the magic number needed to win the Democratic Party nominee outright, Clinton knows that she won't get enough support from the Super Delegates to beat Obama. If she loses either of the Ohio or Texas primaries, she will probably drop out of the race. Here's why i believe i'm right: because i got the Super Tuesday decision right. Over 4,000 content producers read that article and sure enough, i was right that McCain would win and Hillary would finish slightly ahead of Obama.
At the end of the day, Hillary Clinton knows she will not win this race. Obama has too much money and too much support throughout the nation to be beaten at this point in time. For the good of the Democratic Party and to put a Democrat in the White House for the first time in 8 years, Hillary will drop out of the race to support Obama. The interesting thing is that Hillary Clinton has moved on to Vermont to campaign but I think its all a mirage. If she doesn't win both states on March 4, there wont be any need for there to be a competitive election in the states following Texas and Ohio.
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2 Comments
Post a CommentEnjoyed the analysis though I don't agree with you. Hillary Clinton will fight on. Pennsylvania will carry her forward. You might be interested in my opinion at : http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/640147/hillary_clinton_kos_obama_in_texas.html
I hope to God you're right. Your analysis is completely logical, but the Clintons are unaccustomed to losing. I don't think they're capable of graciously bowing out and will fight to the bitter end. The result you suggest would be much healthier for the country. My detailed take on this is in my most recent article, "The Peculiar Evil of Hillary Clinton."