Will the "Jasmine Revolution" Take Off?

The usual Jasmine is a small, whitish flower with a very haunting smell. Such a gentle flower cannot be symbolic of a bloody revolution.

But then, it may be a suitable name for the low-key but persistent protest now happening in Beijing.

The juggernaut of the Chinese government has been successful so far in nipping the small flower of protests right in the bud.

Yet, its bewitching smell refuses to leave as protesters suddenly appear from nowhere every morning, though in small numbers.

Silence so far was achieved with brute force by the no-nonsense speedy arrest of the loudest protesters and constant spray of water by sanitary trucks so that nobody can stand in one particular location in the Wangfujing shopping district for too long.

Yes, that is the new Tiananmen Square in the making. At least, according to the dissidents.

This time, protesters seem to have opted for the comparatively narrower constraints of a busy shopping street to the wide open spaces of a square of the past. That seems to be a smart move by the protesters as it helps them to just dissolve into the teeming shopper-crowd if police come in.

The clarion call for these protests appeared on Twitter in the aftermath of the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt. Those messages came from dissidents in exile outside China.

Some of those calls appear to have reached their targets despite the government's clamp down on the internet.

The Chinese government responded with an iron fist by arresting protest leaders and known dissidents which include lawyers. Internet censorship was tightened further. Foreign media are not allowed into the affected streets to meet the young protesters

And, in potential trouble spots, cops are outnumbering the pedestrians.

The fashion district of Wangjingfu street appears to be not very far from Tiananmen Square on the map.

Will the current protests there rise to the level of those revolutions in the Middle East? Nobody thinks so. At least for the time being.

The young protesters are far outnumbered by the police and the army. Their leaders are in prison or are in exile.

Then, where lies the danger if the Chinese government has everything under control?

The timing of the protest.

The Chinese Communist Party elections including that for the nation's Presidency are just a few months away during 2012-2013, a long drawn out process starting from the village and small town levels.

Traditionally, the months prior to the elections have witnessed intense power struggle in Beijing.

Especially, that is the time the top army brass flex their muscles against party political figures to reinforce their hold on the administration.

So, if any disgruntled leader and his comrades find their influence in the party hierarchy slipping down and try to garner support from the dissidents, then things may change from small hit and run jasmine protests to more violent ones.

Gone are the days of such charismatic leaders like the late Mao Zedong who had the strength of such historic campaigns like the Long March and the Great Leap Forward behind their absolute power.

Even then, Mao had to face dissidence from his own confidant and potential successor Lin Biao, a general. The latter died in an air crash while fleeing to Mongolia after a failed coup against his own mentor.

Much depends on whether the young protesters can keep the embers of dissidence burning all though the coming months until the pre-election power struggle heats up in Beijing. Then things may change.