Will Lou Dobbs' Hints of a 2012 Presidential Run Have an Effect on the GOP?

Appearing on former Senator Fred Thompson's radio show on Monday, Lou Dobbs was asked if he would consider a run at the 2012 Presidential election. He responded, "Yes is the answer." The real question to answer is how would this decision effect the other possible candidates in 2012.

First, let's consider Mr. Dobbs' popularity. Following his ousting at CNN, mainly driven by his outspoken stance against illegal immigration, I could not locate any individuals who were outraged by the cable giant's decision. Therefore, who will cast votes for him? Sure you may have a group of individuals who will side with Dobbs on immigration, but the vast majority of the population are more concerned about employment, retirement, and health care issues.

Secondly, under which party would Dobbs run? Given his equal criticism of both major US parties, I would wager he would enter as an Independent, or possibly as a Reform party candidate. For an independent's effect on the candidates, one only needs to look at the 1992 election in which Ross Perot seized upon the nation's fears of recession and deficits, while the incumbent Bush was evicting Iraq out of Kuwait. Perot either stole some of Bush's votes, or brought votes to Clinton by shining a light on the nation's domestic ills under Bush. In the 2000 election, Independent Ralph Nader was accused of siphoning votes from Gore which, in part, facilitated Bush's victory.

Given the above, I suppose a Dobbs Presidential bid could cost a candidate a small amount of votes. However, Independents have taken ballots from either party throughout history, so it would not be clear from whom the votes would be taken. If there is no improvement in the economy, Dobbs could snare a few from President Obama. Also, if Sarah Palin does attempt to run, the way in which she polarizes people could cause some of her votes to be cast for Dobbs. So, although votes could be cast for Dobbs at the expense of either the Republican or Democratic candidates, it surely will not be enough to make a difference similarly to past elections.

Perhaps if we are interested in seriously altering the voting landscape with the entry of a television personality into the election, let's discuss Oprah. She plans to retire in 2011, just in time for consideration.