Will U.S. Military Intervene in Libya?

While the U.S. military officially does not plan to intervene in Libya at the moment, there is still a chance that American troops will overthrow Gaddafi.

As of this writing, the rioting, conflict, and revolution in Gaddafi's Libya continue. Now, though, the question is whether the U.S. will get involved. The official word is that military intervention is "unlikely." [Source: Babak Dehghanpisheh. Libyan Journalists Join the Revolution, Mon, 28 Feb 2011 19:51:35 -0400. Downloaded from: http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-02-28/libyan-journalists-join-the-revolution/]

But just yesterday, Hillary Clinton promised to provide "any type of assistance" to Libya. [Source: Clinton: We're Ready to Help Libya, 2011-02-27T18:40:10. Downloaded from: http://www.newser.com/story/112981/hillary-clinton-were-ready-to-give-libya-any-type-of-assistance.html] The Secretary of State's promise was vague, but she meant something by it. And it seems that the only type of aid that could be necessary for Libyans at the moment is military aid. Clinton's comments might have set the stage for U.S. intervention in Libya.

Even under a Democratic President, there is pressure to maintain stability in the part of the world that provides America's oil. In the past month, we have seen the price of oil rise dramatically, in part because of the political turmoil in Egypt. President Obama wants the U.S. economy to recover as quickly as possible, and further increases in the price of oil would slow down the recovery. Just as Egypt's rioting spread to Libya, a civil war in Libya could spark violence in other oil-producing countries.

Barack Obama's ailing poll numbers would benefit from the "rally round the flag" phenomenon. I don't know who invented the term, but in political science people often talk about the "rally around the flag" phenomenon, which is that when a President declares war, his ratings almost always go up (no matter how misguided the war). Obama is thinking about re-election, and his odds of winning in 2012 will be a lot better if he can cause a sudden jump in his job approval ratings. A war in Libya would be relatively low-risk and would certainly help Obama's numbers.

The case for intervention in Libya sounds pretty cynical, but the Obama administration could definitely see compelling reasons to have U.S. military forces involve themselves in the overthrow of Gaddafi.

Sources

Babak Dehghanpisheh. Libyan Journalists Join the Revolution, Mon, 28 Feb 2011 19:51:35 -0400. Downloaded from: http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-02-28/libyan-journalists-join-the-revolution/

Clinton: We're Ready to Help Libya, 2011-02-27T18:40:10. Downloaded from: http://www.newser.com/story/112981/hillary-clinton-were-ready-to-give-libya-any-type-of-assistance.html