With Hurricane Gustav 2008, Louisiana Looking at Katrina, Rita Redux

On August 29, 2008, the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans is a city on edge. Many businesses are shutting down at noon today, and people are preparing to evacuate the city over the next 48 hours. Drivers are hoping to get a jump on the inevitable traffic snarls caused by Contra-Flow. The U.S. Postal Service is suspending mail service until the storm passes. Noon today will be the last pick-up from public mailboxes.

The one thing people haven't really begun to talk about in this city is the nightmare scenario that has a chance of repeating itself this year. In addition to Gustav becoming a major hurricane in the next day or so, Tropical Storm Hanna has formed in the Atlantic and so far has a track very similar to Hurricane Katrina's three years ago. The only difference? Hanna is already much stronger and better organized than Katrina was at that stage.

Most of the world watched in horror as Katrina came ashore and the New Orleans levies broke, flooding 80% of the city. The city quickly descended into chaos on a biblical scale. A month later, Hurricane Rita hit near the Texas border and flooded New Orleans all over again. There are regions of Western Louisiana that still haven't recovered from Rita.

Is New Orleans ready to face the storm surge from a Category 3 Gustav? The current track of the storm brings it ashore west of New Orleans, putting the city on the "bad" side of the storm with torrential rains and inevitable flooding. Will all the preparations made by the Army Corps of Engineers hold up? The word is that the city has Category 3 protection, but no one is willing to see it tested.

Assuming the levies and pumps are successful in minimizing damage from Gustav, will they be ready for another major storm right behind Gustav? If Hanna continues to mirror the path of Katrina, New Orleans may have to brace for a double header. And there won't be a month to prepare for Hanna like there was for Rita. Hanna would only be a few days behind Gustav.

The state isn't taking any chances. Governor Bobby Jindal has already declared an emergency, and the National Guard has been mobilized. Learning the hard lessons of Katrina, there will be no "shelters of last resort" like the tragic scenes at the Super Dome and the Convention Center. The government has made it very clear that if anyone chooses not to evacuate for Gustav, they are on their own. To that end, the government is providing buses for anyone without transportation out of the city.

It is becoming an almost foregone conclusion that Gustav is going to hit near New Orleans. Hanna already has a suspiciously familiar track. If this nightmare scenario did play out, would there be anything left of New Orleans? And would anyone come back?