Yao Ming May Not Play Again

Houston Rockets center Yao Ming is Chinese basketball. But what happens when the face of a nation's sport appears to be headed for the disabled list for more than a year?

Yao Ming wasn't always injury prone. Drafted in 2002, Yao Ming entered the league averaging 13.5 points per game and 8.2 rebounds per game in his rookie season. And he was virtually injury free until the 2005-2006 season when troubles with his big toe led to a broken bone in his left foot, which ultimately required surgery.

Then during the 2006-2007 season, Yao suffered a broken right leg.

In 2007-2008, Yao missed 27 games with a stress fracture in his left foot.

And he was looking good this past season, 2008-2009, after having played in 77 games, but in the second round of the playoffs, Yao went out with a stress fracture in Game 3 against the Lakers.

And that stress fracture has yet to have healed. After doctors looked at it in May, they thought there would have been progress by now, but there hasn't been. Now, doctors and Yao have agreed that the foot needs help to recover, and now Yao must undergo a surgery that will have him ready for Houston Rockets training camp-in 2010!

So that means Yao will miss the entire 2009-2010 NBA season. That can't be good for proponents of the game in China.

Yao has a lot of ties to Chinese basketball, and I'm not just talking about the fact that he played basketball in China. Yao is the face of Chinese basketball. He is the reason the NBA wants to start NBA China. He is the reason the Chinese are interested in buying a piece of the Cleveland Cavaliers. He is the reason that basketball was one of the most popular events for Chinese spectators during the 2008 Beijing Olympics. So to proponents of the game in China, and to Chinese basketball fans themselves, Yao's impending disappearing act for the next 15 months is a big blow to hearts and to wallets.

If you thought Yao had just one job, you were mistaken. All these years, Yao has been going back to his home country to play basketball for the national team during the offseason. Deep down, I'm sure Yao knew what partaking in year-round basketball was doing to his 7'6" frame, but he knows what his involvement in the sport means to the people of China and the growth of the sport in his country, and he was willing to jeopardize his own health for that.

Of course, it probably wasn't entirely up to Yao. For a long time, Yao was required to play basketball for China during the offseason as a part of their agreement to release him to the NBA. But mandatory or not, Yao's participation with Chinese basketball was something he was going to do, because he knew it gave the young people of his country a new outlet into the world outside of the Republic.

But now, Yao is out, for at least 15 months. And what if he's gone for good?

The truth is, this surgery comes without guarantees. Sure, it will probably work well enough in the beginning to get Yao back on a basketball court 15 months from now, but what if that foot just can't hold up to an 82-game season? Many basketball analysts have suggested that Yao's next major stress fracture will be his last; that Yao won't play basketball ever again if he has to endure another serious injury to the foot.

What would an early end to Yao's basketball career mean?

And what if his career is already over?

Certainly, that would delay plans of an NBA China, as the main ambassador of the sport wouldn't be around to see it through. Sure, Yao's face will always have cache as the greatest Chinese basketball player to have ever lived, but if you want to migrate this sport to China and make it the multi-billion dollar industry it is here in the United States, then one had better have the guy who introduced this latest generation to the game. Not having Yao physically involved in basketball at the outset of NBA China would be like launching Air Jordan's after MJ retired. It just wouldn't work.

Yao's absence from the game could also mean an immediate decline in basketball interest among Chinese fans. We all know how impressive the number of votes Yao gets from Chinese fans during the All-Star balloting. The question is, how much of that interaction, participation and viewership of the game will the NBA lose if Yao isn't playing?

It looks like we're about to find out.